Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de3f76fe9b60857833856bec4f30d815cdb0c283361112b46e13b759cd8ef38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $866,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $854,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 0c | 77,537$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.37 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 1c | 67,811$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c37…0631backed No | 3c | 50,764$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 3c | 25,637$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.01 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…3be4backed No | 1c | 23,518$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a1…3bbebacked No | 1c | 19,415$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 31c | 12,430$3,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,822.3 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc106…2a44backed No | 1c | 12,226$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 1c | 11,749$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 69c | 11,621$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.69 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe437…ed7dbacked No | 0c | 11,600$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f8dbbacked No | 0c | 10,899$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…f5abbacked No | 1c | 10,478$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 20cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 1c | 10,097$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.11 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdb…b627backed No | 10c | 8,354$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c7…cb20backed No | 1c | 8,281$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 8,033$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…10c0backed No | 0c | 6,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9229…5db5backed No | 1c | 6,529$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 4c | 6,161$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.06 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 10c | 6,000$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.55 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…6150backed No | 1c | 5,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…38ecbacked No | 2c | 5,449$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed No | 2c | 5,352$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…e144backed No | 1c | 5,081$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…0188backed No | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe465…01d4backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…bfcbbacked No | 1c | 4,843$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed No | 0c | 4,660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…9d0abacked No | 2c | 4,654$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.7 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed No | 1c | 4,342$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +13.0wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 4,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 13c | 3,973$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.62 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b9…74d8backed No | 12c | 3,880$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.62 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 13c | 3,797$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.55 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…b2efbacked No | 1c | 3,617$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 1c | 3,600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…a51cbacked No | 6c | 3,271$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.45 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d2…2c95backed No | 1c | 3,084$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…1731backed No | 1c | 2,884$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…3340backed No | 1c | 2,687$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5622…89adbacked No | 1c | 2,658$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…cfb5backed No | 3c | 2,646$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.1 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d28fbacked No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed No | 1c | 2,492$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cfc…31efbacked No | 6c | 2,444$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed Yes | 59c | 2,400$1,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked No | 2c | 2,240$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…fa42backed No | 7c | 2,200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b8…aa6fbacked No | 1c | 2,144$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked No | 7c | 2,016$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…fd43backed No | 1c | 2,015$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…8c2cbacked No | 4c | 2,006$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…fb42backed No | 3c | 2,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35be…fb8dbacked No | 5c | 1,953$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3673backed No | 16c | 1,860$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.02 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cae…7940backed No | 44c | 1,832$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b96…7bc2backed No | 1c | 1,773$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…1ab9backed No | 48c | 1,671$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked Yes | 59c | 1,600$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 78c | 1,589$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.44 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…cbc8backed No | 3c | 1,554$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…2864backed No | 7c | 1,526$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ea…a2c5backed No | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d1…8d0ebacked No | 8c | 1,431$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 70c | 1,356$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.44 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1825…92a7backed No | 1c | 1,328$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30be…4e33backed No | 32c | 1,250$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed No | 5c | 1,218$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…539fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,200$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 70 | 72.9%51 W · 19 L | +12.4wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…557fbacked No | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…54edbacked No | 3c | 1,088$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6daf…9b82backed No | 1c | 1,060$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 16c | 1,052$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.91 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 75c | 1,008$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.84 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…1e71backed No | 10c | 1,002$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed8…7c2fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.04 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed Yes | 54c | 1,000$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.67 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8e…f581backed No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 65c | 998.99$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.65 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed No | 1c | 997.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…3d2fbacked No | 2c | 945.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 32c | 918.94$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…033fbacked No | 3c | 909.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 56c | 790.51$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.57 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb602…d331backed No | 1c | 744.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b81…2ca8backed No | 19c | 736.83$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked No | 28c | 704.85$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9c…61febacked No | 13c | 700$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 2c | 650$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked No | 37c | 635.12$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…1e83backed No | 3c | 604.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d2…8c38backed No | 3c | 600.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 59c | 599.99$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.3wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…86c4backed No | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec6…0cfebacked No | 4c | 481.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 438$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?this page
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by March 6?No won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?Yes won
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.