TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xeb28…3694

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
215
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 60 out of 100; worst La Liga at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT17950.3%90 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 179 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.2
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kanebacked Mbappe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$15
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.2
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$75
Norway vs. England: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$779Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$778.76
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.25
Norway vs. England: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+86%+$46.25
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.25
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$19
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$112.49
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$27.5
France vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$195
Switzerland vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 179 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$63
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$710Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$419.24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+60.9%+$12.1
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,221Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$653.34
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$160
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,253Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.2%+$340.65
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$609Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+227.7%+$1,386.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$749.7
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$290
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$1,200
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$74
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$90
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+84.4%+$457.67
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.8
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$628Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$628.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+70.9%+$33.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+150%+$48
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 24 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Flavio Cobollibacked Karen Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$769.97
Set 2 Winner: Khachanov vs Cobollibacked Khachanov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$450
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$154.1
Will Celta Vigo vs. Espanyol end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$242.44
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$949Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+37%+$351
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will India win?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$538Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$537.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.