Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will CD Nacional win on 2025-11-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aae903d630d343ddacd5312a398f5abe6d1e4b90f380397b0461bc6f35f9d5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c04…5f89backed Yes | 17c | 9,100$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 54c | 4,161$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.47 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb28…3694backed Yes | 63c | 2,927$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 41c | 1,309$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.23 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,243$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 41c | 1,182$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.93 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 54c | 1,066$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.99 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 11c | 692.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 688.21$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 40c | 360$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed No | 70c | 338.88$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Yes | 56c | 311$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…a73ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 8c | 285.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 11c | 270$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…4a13backed No | 44c | 261.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +181.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 38c | 197.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 60c | 163$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.11 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked No | 53c | 115.89$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…6dc6backed No | 57c | 79.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c67…910abacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 869 | 60.4%525 W · 344 L | +91.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ad…e353backed No | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked No | 51c | 33.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…9101backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 75cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660c…0645backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 61c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 80c | 19.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CD Nacional win on 2025-11-29?this page
- Will CD Nacional vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-29?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.