TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,758
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,463

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,758 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c3,336$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.391879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fc…694dbacked Yes25c2,364$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes37c1,661$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.748056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes2c1,242$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed No60c1,018$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.73933.3%13 W · 26 L-6.0wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No11c1,012$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.2136750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No62c1,000$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3808749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c857.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.073588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed No54c553.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.5523839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes40c516$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.8256336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x126a…e83bbacked Yes8c501.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes8c485.01$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5320239.1%79 W · 123 L+20.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+44.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8257…da02backed No22c470.67$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.3210742.1%45 W · 62 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes61c466$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1642738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x44ee…9fffbacked No60c418.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes11c417.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39a5…6a10backed Yes47c385.32$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.67520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.37per pick57cpaid-51%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes27c383.9$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.137817.9%14 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe19c…0b8dbacked No74c378.94$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.411353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick65cpaid+12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes75c349.79$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0834440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a17…6348backed Yes58c344.84$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.351741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid+35.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f20…1855backed No70c310.51$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.352142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13547334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes3c295.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5664…f163backed No59c285.85$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.284355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f14…a9c4backed Yes4c250.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…eeb2backed No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002748.1%13 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes17c244.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7231719.2%61 W · 256 L-23.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7656…194bbacked No62c242.2$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0210861.1%66 W · 42 L+19.1wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+62%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x23d8…710cbacked No60c235.32$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.27650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc155…2f92backed Yes67c223.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.911266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e3…0593backed No59c219.1$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e89…bb29backed No65c200$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775d…08f8backed No56c199.92$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed No64c191.91$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.911070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf22…5473backed Yes60c167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006752.2%35 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+72.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x711c…8495backed Yes42c163.77$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688641.9%36 W · 50 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb20…054bbacked Yes24c154.73$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.464245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8147…5039backed No65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a46…156ebacked Yes22c141.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.52520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-72.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes18c138.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2547…937fbacked Yes42c137.4$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.663228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xffab…0912backed No63c129.59$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.141464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+80%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0772…e8abbacked No44c128.69$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.13580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+53.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e19…1767backed No79c126.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed Yes41c124.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.244678.3%36 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No55c110.95$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.47850%39 W · 39 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e6…b538backed Yes45c108.7$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick49cpaid-62.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1cb…838bbacked Yes46c105.85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…5edfbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x439f…5bb1backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9221…03a6backed Yes45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453836.8%14 W · 24 L-8.2wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-37.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No60c99.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9122262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf646…3a62backed Yes52c98.25$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick69cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe277…8e46backed Yes39c97.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1316440.2%66 W · 98 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+18.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes56c90.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.217347.4%82 W · 91 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4071…3de4backed No74c87.48$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.481275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+27.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54f9…2697backed Yes48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda9…35c9backed No60c82.37$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.95785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb28…3694backed No59c80$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3538…6c69backed Yes39c77.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+68.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7517…5880backed No72c75.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.071070%7 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes38c74.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1213440.3%54 W · 80 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+47.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4c9…d813backed No60c61.75$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.95683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…b5b5backed Yes33c59.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.82055%11 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae1d…e333backed Yes50c56$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2818833.5%63 W · 125 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851e…2134backed Yes32c54.49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.22634.6%9 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+51.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fcd…de5ebacked Yes49c53.9$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.452638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid+40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc682…17bbbacked No51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.52634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf431…0d83backed No65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d88…f8a1backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1840%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6f0…d8a0backed No75c49.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.667354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x19b1…3aecbacked Yes75c48.12$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes30c46.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.76342.9%27 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e51…ca50backed Yes46c43.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca7…ddc7backed Yes49c41.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecca…6a15backed No51c39.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.464161%25 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked No71c39.17$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.17580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08d4…0a3ebacked No60c39.02$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes45c38.68$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.296549.2%32 W · 33 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x250a…dafabacked Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+26.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcfa…520dbacked No62c32.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.06875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+68.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac6…d659backed Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a9c…580bbacked No65c30.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.926100%6 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.774151.2%21 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18cc…1ffabacked No65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9a…9738backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+57.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…d3e0backed No59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.421752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6737…5d94backed No79c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes42c24.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.56725.4%17 W · 50 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-0.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xae7c…18f1backed Yes69c18.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.59633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11cb…2368backed No75c17.33$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cf0…4055backed No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.