Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c8f13bacb45c4accb04e8928c9a7f8acef8e36a8072b299f75b9cc09a6011b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,611
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,611 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 134 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3164…3033backed No | 74c | 2,250$1,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.56 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,398$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27c…b5d8backed Yes | 71c | 1,072$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.44 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 799.97$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.38 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 41c | 779.44$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.84 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 39c | 623.27$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.27 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 36c | 555.96$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.82 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 65c | 451.49$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.98 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…2ed0backed No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…b081backed No | 62c | 399.99$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 52c | 385.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 353.1$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.71 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked No | 34c | 349.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 63c | 349.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.33 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 45c | 338.66$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4828…1cf3backed No | 59c | 337.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 45c | 332.2$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 25c | 317$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.6 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 65c | 306.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 61c | 288.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 35c | 272$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…a1cfbacked Yes | 4c | 253.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 39c | 250$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.28 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 67c | 248.74$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.01 | 46 | 78.3%36 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 14c | 238.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 67c | 228.47$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.45 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95da…60b4backed Yes | 43c | 227.08$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 61c | 224.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x111d…85f7backed Yes | 42c | 224.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 30c | 222$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.4 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8aa…248fbacked No | 56c | 213.07$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0934…f376backed Yes | 41c | 206.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked Yes | 37c | 202.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…4f03backed No | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…688fbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80df…3407backed No | 62c | 189.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…2715backed Yes | 35c | 172.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 58c | 163.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 17c | 159.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 40c | 149.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed No | 39c | 136.93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 15c | 135.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 30c | 135$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…348dbacked No | 45c | 134.74$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 62c | 123.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 42c | 116.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 56c | 102.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d3…ee39backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 68c | 95.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | -7.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf9…02f5backed No | 32c | 94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c4…1478backed Yes | 40c | 92.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…1bcbbacked No | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2c…d8debacked No | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ae…33e4backed No | 45c | 88.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 57c | 79.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 25c | 79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…e58cbacked No | 52c | 76.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…3170backed No | 64c | 76.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 34c | 74.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 45c | 70.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked No | 58c | 68.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 39c | 65.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 65.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…14afbacked Yes | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 64c | 63.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 57c | 63.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe1…7e45backed No | 48c | 62.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…3321backed No | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 32c | 60.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…6c63backed No | 49c | 59.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2541…60acbacked Yes | 77c | 58.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 40c | 55.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…a34cbacked No | 48c | 53.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…909fbacked Yes | 63c | 51.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3014…493ebacked Yes | 61c | 51.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391e…ec9abacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145a…e92ebacked Yes | 63c | 50.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…f743backed No | 48c | 49.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…58f0backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…d808backed No | 39c | 46.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c88…5aecbacked No | 76c | 45.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…0053backed Yes | 64c | 41.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…2cfabacked No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf9…2059backed Yes | 61c | 40.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cb…f7bdbacked No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…148dbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…76aebacked Yes | 66c | 39.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…bc07backed No | 37c | 39.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100e…cc8fbacked Yes | 57c | 39.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc91…ff44backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 64. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?this page
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 14?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 19?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 2?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 3?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.