TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf597…f4ae

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
181
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
17

Best Category: Movies, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT4645.7%21 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.04
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.61
Cavaliers vs. Bulls: O/U 240.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.7
Heat vs. Bulls: O/U 250.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+88.7%+$8.88
Wizards vs. Raptors: O/U 238.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+88.7%+$11.33
Pacers vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.76
Warriors vs. Heat: O/U 230.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Spread: 76ers (-4.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Thunder vs. Pelicans: O/U 225.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.19
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Clippers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+56.3%+$6.12
Bucks vs. Cavaliersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Bulls vs. Jazzbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Magic vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+96.1%+$12.25
Spread: Warriors (-9.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Lakers vs. Bucks: O/U 228.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Spread: Raptors (-5.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+78.6%+$8.8
Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Raptors vs. Pacers: O/U 232.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$11.6
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST2450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeFi Technologies (DEFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+58.7%+$14.8
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+104.1%+$15.3
Will Paramount Group (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+56.3%+$18
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17.5
Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+71.4%+$12.5
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Bumble (BMBL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$11.8
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+316.7%+$38
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+26.6%+$21
Will Arm Holdings (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$32.5
Will Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$13.1
Will Shopify (SHOP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+594.4%+$85.59
Will Wingstop (WING) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+31.6%+$4.8
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$8
Will Marriott International (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.99
Will Grab Holdings (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+108.3%+$15.6
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+36.8%+$7.89
All 24 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.75
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+44.9%+$4.65
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+58.7%+$6.29
Will Arsenal FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.64
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+170.3%+$17.64
Will FC København win on 2025-11-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+27.4%+$5.37
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+53.8%+$21
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$54.6
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-11-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$10
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.41
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$4.2
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+27.1%+$3.38
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+78.6%+$21.13
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+66.7%+$29.12
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$15.7
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$17.19
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+47.5%+$5.8
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$15.4
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.44
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$22.34
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+28.2%+$4.4
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+60.7%+$26.44
House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$26.74
All 10 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$37.57
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the Monad public sale commitments be less than $400M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+212.5%+$68
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $400M and $600M?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.75
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+252.9%+$43
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$21.18
Choo Kyung-ho in jail by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.05
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28.39
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$11.1
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-54.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+118.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Stars vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Devils vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$10.75
All 3 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+275%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lazio win on 2025-10-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$77.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.02
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+203%+$30.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$6.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ditonellapiaga win Sanremo 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ulsan HD FC vs. Suwon FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during Xi events on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tigres de la UANL vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$480
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.