Earnings · resolved market
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51a55abced1d700e0df3fd0f6a7f4c3008e6db96574c050d66e996ec7b68ffa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 37c | 1,500$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.92 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked No | 21c | 698.75$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.75 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…973cbacked Yes | 8c | 631.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 36c | 534.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.71 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…e710backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 78c | 365.91$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.69 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed No | 17c | 343.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.04 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…83e3backed Yes | 60c | 299.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 263.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 66c | 243.52$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…d823backed Yes | 68c | 209.47$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed Yes | 68c | 155.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 19c | 149.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…7e26backed Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 69c | 115.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed No | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.81 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…5522backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…0db0backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +132%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 37c | 85.37$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…96fabacked Yes | 69c | 75.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 74c | 68.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9b…578cbacked No | 17c | 62.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…d8cdbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x020d…118bbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 64cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x147d…62f4backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…b0ccbacked Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 42.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1a…0f64backed Yes | 72c | 34.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…f68bbacked Yes | 76c | 32.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa10a…28b1backed Yes | 55c | 27.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…81b5backed Yes | 72c | 24.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…9226backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 74c | 14.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.