TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x669d…19b0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
211
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Tweets, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 60 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST6371.4%45 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$19.32
Will United Bankshares (UBSI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will McCormick & Company (MKC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.54
Will Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+47.5%+$32.2
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+72.4%+$25.2
Will DraftKings (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$36.6
Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+53.8%+$7
Will OneStream (OS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Hyatt Hotels (H) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will FS KKR Capital (FSK) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Chime Financial (CHYM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Bumble (BMBL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27.6
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+69.5%+$32.8
Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Icahn Enterprises (IEP) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27.6
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$14.6
Will Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+37%+$5.4
Will Hinge Health (HNGE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Toast (TOST) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Will Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$24.4
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+46.5%+$95.16
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$433.49
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$115.79
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$381.73
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48.4
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$66.8
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65.81
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$189
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+44.9%+$62
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+82.9%+$272
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+316.7%+$38
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+177.8%+$32
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$320Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+25%+$80
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.07
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.19
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on September 30 ET?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.2
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 19-21 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$12.6
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla between September 16–18 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+30.5%+$23.4
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 16 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.6
All 24 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get at least 150M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$23.6
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$54
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+237.8%+$105.6
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+300%+$75
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$7.86
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be red/pink?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+44.9%+$7.86
Big Game: 'Seahawks Revenge' Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba break NFL receiving yards record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$11.35
Will the announcers say "Safety" during Patriots vs Bills game? (October 5)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will the Cincinnati Bengals be the first team to reach 50 total points scored?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
Jalen Hurts O/U 212.5 passing yards? backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.54
Will Jalen Hurts score a Touchdown in the Cowboys vs. Eagles game?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted in the First Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+38.3%+$14.13
Will there be a streaker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$95.89
Lions vs. 49ersbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$87.05
NFL Wk 1: The Free Tyreek Specialbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+147.2%+$65.5
Dolphins vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$45.64
All 18 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2026 NBA All-Star: Player to hit half-court shot?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+29.9%+$13.8
Will Jaxson Hayes win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$19.95
Will Carter Bryant win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+63.9%+$78
Will Keshad Johnson win the 2026 NBA dunk contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$134
Will Devin Booker win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+40.8%+$58
Will Damian Lillard win the 2026 NBA 3-point contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$157.88
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+25.4%+$87.59
Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 4.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.67
Will Lebron announce final season Tuesday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$26.5
All 11 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+16.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stripe not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$987Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$338.35
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.12
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.22
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$66
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.6
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$414.36
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.54
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by June 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$100.97
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick40cpaid+148.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.7
Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$35
Will Elon Musk post 40-49 tweets on September 6, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Trump posts 30-39 times on X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2024, EDT+100%+$10
Will Elon tweet 120-129?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2024, EDT+36.1%+$26.5
Will Elon tweet 100-109?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT+34.4%+$14.5
Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+686%+$148.48
Will Elon tweet 80-89 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.84
Will Elon tweet 90-99 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.04
Will Elon tweet 100+ times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2024, EDT+848.1%+$202.35
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Beast Games: Season 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+33.3%+$7.5
Will "One Battle After Another" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 29m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$7.6
Will "The Senior" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.8
Will "The Senior" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$10.68
Will "The Conjuring: Last Rites" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+107.3%+$41.4
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross less than $75m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT+149.7%+$16.4
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$28
Deadpool & Wolverine' over $200m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2024, EDT-100%-$57.65
Will 'Twisters' gross less than $56m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2024, EDT-100%-$17
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude Code Commits hit (HIGH) 750.0k by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$177.6
Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$32.1
Will Elon Musk's net worth be at least $670b on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+77.7%+$47.2
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $640b and $650b on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.22
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$25.63
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.2
OpenAI browser by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$5.42
DeepSeek banned in US before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.7%+$72.15
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$75.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$401.03
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will the Conservative Party (H) win more than 31 seats in the Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+153.9%+$78.8
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$106
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+40.4%+$164.1
Another New Popular Front member next Prime Minister of France? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$151.05
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+63.9%+$19.5
All 9 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2024, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+66.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
South Carolina vs. Illinoisbacked Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+49.6%+$43.11
Louisville vs. Washingtonbacked Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$40.65
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zama FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$72.58
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+143.9%+$29.49
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Sep 8, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2024, EDT+104.1%+$51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon 2024: Djokovic vs. Musettibacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2024, EDT+44.9%+$15.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Reach Round 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+38.2%+$16.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Goal" 15+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a hurricane form by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.