Middle East · resolved market
Will the US strike Somalia next?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15d5b3e1047ed397cd5285d6352cb7d1552c9759dbefcdd0d61d9f17bed6882
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,148,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,327,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,148,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bc3…d183backed No | 0c | 74,310$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 1c | 44,103$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.16 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…9235backed No | 2c | 37,086$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…6c51backed No | 0c | 21,286$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…9212backed No | 1c | 20,137$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…2fd2backed No | 5c | 14,018$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…f118backed No | 0c | 13,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda8f…435fbacked No | 0c | 11,647$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 10,650$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…e98bbacked No | 1c | 10,611$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e19…a600backed No | 1c | 10,400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0339…5b2cbacked No | 23c | 9,049$2,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb56…6858backed No | 1c | 8,074$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace1…923bbacked No | 1c | 6,544$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dc…0da7backed No | 3c | 6,533$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf7a…acd7backed No | 0c | 6,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe973…4dc0backed No | 1c | 5,943$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a93…6f4dbacked No | 0c | 5,850$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 5,123$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…3471backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…400cbacked No | 1c | 4,768$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…7aedbacked No | 0c | 4,633$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 55c | 4,487$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.88 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…299abacked No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…3f5ebacked No | 1c | 3,983$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 3,750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…d9e4backed No | 2c | 3,451$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 3,149$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.75 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,912$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 9c | 2,586$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.55 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 2,355$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 72c | 2,012$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 11c | 2,000$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked No | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 65c | 2,000$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 13c | 1,874$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.65 | 92 | 34.8%32 W · 60 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 1,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed No | 15c | 1,536$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.26 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…2df3backed No | 3c | 1,528$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 20c | 1,514$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.94 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked Yes | 80c | 1,500$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.1 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -10.0wins | -0.59per pick | 65cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 24-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 3c | 1,481$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…0bfcbacked No | 15c | 1,400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9745…1cb9backed No | 2c | 1,252$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…a774backed No | 2c | 1,247$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb7…6e83backed No | 2c | 1,213$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed Yes | 78c | 1,200$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.9 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 15c | 1,145$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.7 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 1,115$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2f…f3f6backed No | 19c | 1,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…1ac7backed No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 16c | 970.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.57 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…9c6abacked No | 4c | 969.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…5e4ebacked No | 1c | 953.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 2c | 900$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 2c | 899.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 78c | 892.82$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 16c | 850.66$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.42 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 6c | 753.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…c98bbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 12c | 734.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…8397backed No | 3c | 733.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…11eabacked No | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 714$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 15c | 704.31$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 671.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 6c | 656.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.81 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 625.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…566abacked No | 16c | 624.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 75c | 616$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…f432backed No | 3c | 604.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked No | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed No | 2c | 571.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…4fa5backed Yes | 80c | 549.97$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 52cpaid | -86%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 22c | 516.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 3c | 506.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7369…5f41backed No | 25c | 500.13$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 7c | 499.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x20c4…97c9backed No | 21c | 475.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae7…2419backed No | 5c | 471.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -9.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4742…afe1backed Yes | 73c | 466.37$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…0966backed Yes | 75c | 400.86$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…2c47backed No | 4c | 380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…90b8backed No | 3c | 377.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8daa…57b8backed No | 8c | 361.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e0…d94abacked No | 15c | 311.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 10c | 310.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 12c | 307.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a0…dffebacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…d199backed Yes | 70c | 284.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…8e39backed Yes | 78c | 283$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed Yes | 80c | 266$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 56c | 265.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6a…734abacked No | 14c | 255.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…08b6backed No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 15c | 240.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed No | 22c | 239.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US strike Somalia next?this page
- Will the US not strike another country before 2027?No won
- Will the US strike Colombia next?No won
- Will the US strike Cuba next?No won
- Will the US strike Iran next?No won
- Will the US strike Iraq next?No won
- Will the US strike Mexico next?No won
- Will the US strike Nigeria next?No won
- Will the US strike Syria next?No won
- Will the US strike Venezuela next?No won
- Will the US strike Yemen next?No won
- Will the US strike another country first?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.