TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5081…a309

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
724
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Commodities, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 144 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.63
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.27
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$295.43
US strikes Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+1,668.2%+$849.1
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+4,979.7%+$4,380.52
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$41.46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+1,249.2%+$1,574
US strikes Yemen by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$52.5
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.17
Will Israel strike Iraq by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.77
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.68
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$307.66
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.23
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.13
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$30.38
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$32.32
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$41.85
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$64.32
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$45.95
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33.68
Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$37.25
Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$44.5
Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$36.19
Showing 25 of 144 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1234.1%5 W · 118 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 123 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.78
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.37
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.62
Space FDV above $60M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.26
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$188
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.97
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$71
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.21
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.52
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.02
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.67
Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$72.97
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$62.74
Opinion FDV above $4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14.89
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$219Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+1,298.1%+$2,844.81
Showing 25 of 123 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 80 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.57
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+2,391.6%+$321.99
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.4
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.04
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.68
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.4
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.85
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.29
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.23
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.9
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.64
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.48
Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.29
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.64
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.12
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+1,261.8%+$558.04
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.27
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.33
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.78
Showing 25 of 80 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT717%5 W · 66 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.02
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.62
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPACE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.21
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.91
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.6
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.84
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.5
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.08
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.82
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.36
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+2,459.6%+$1,106.55
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.25
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.08
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.97
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$283.46
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$93.7
Will Artemis II launch by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.24
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.4
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$150.94
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$202.98
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,065.9%+$2,194.08
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.48
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$22.65
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT614.9%3 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-31.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.85
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.92
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.14
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.08
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.51
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.12
Will Ryan Coogler win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.05
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+900%+$90
Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.07
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.41
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+2,059.6%+$1,416.62
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.52
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.84
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.01
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.35
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.12
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.65
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.1
Will Russia enter Sumy by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.07
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.38
Will Denmark join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.29
Will Norway join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will China join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.27
Will the U.K. join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will France join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.19
Will Germany join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.85
Will Sweden join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Nuclear weapon detonation by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.72
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Ukraine hits Moscow by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$380.44
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.24
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.36
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.02
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$13.7
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.99
Hillary Clinton charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.21
Trump out as President by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.81
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.36
ICE forced to unmask by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.94
Will Bill or Hillary Clinton be held in contempt of Congress by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.69
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.2
Will the U.S. collect between $500b and $1t in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.46
Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$137
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$155.73
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49.55
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$28.56
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10.1
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$44.2
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.02
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.39
Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.28
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+1,053.8%+$1,369.94
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$59.37
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$106.15
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$226.6
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$134.03
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150.17
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.81
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.84
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.32
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.9
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.5% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.44
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.08
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$133
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$77.32
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$215.22
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$32.02
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$87.41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$471Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$470.73
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$308.42
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$568Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$568.15
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$474.75
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.7
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$23.3
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+1,385.1%+$279.8
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.53
Will France win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.36
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.14
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.2
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.11
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.16
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.82
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.11
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.94
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.32
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.38
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.85
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+1,884.1%+$1,282.99
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.27
Will Antti Paalanen win UMK 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will DtMF by Bad Bunny be the Billboard #1 song for the week of February 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10.33
Will DtMF - Bad Bunny be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Will Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.65
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.1
Will DTMF (Bad Bunny) win Record of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+2,322.5%+$258.06
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$53.07
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.12
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.73
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$18.36
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$73.49
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$24.99
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$23.2
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$30.02
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$46.11
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Megaquake by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.2
Will there be at least 600 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+1,718.2%+$189
Will there be at least 500 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$16.76
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$160.49
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$19.14
Will there be less than 4 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.98
Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$16.47
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18.37
Will there be at least 400 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$11.8
All 22 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$33.19
Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$27.53
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+1,586.3%+$912.42
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$59.25
Will New York Times Company (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$27.2
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.81
Will Pfizer Inc (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$29
Will Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$28.79
Will Walt Disney Co (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$32.79
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$40.77
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$27.4
Will International Business Machines (IBM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$14.83
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.14
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21
All 18 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.09
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$32.54
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.21
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.1% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$25.34
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.9
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.7% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$45.49
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+1,201.1%+$131.09
Will the ECB announce no change at the February 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$35.37
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the February 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$13.33
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$56.04
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 13 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.7
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.27
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.11
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.59
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.24
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 12 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+1,171.6%+$1,894.41
Will Rhamondre Stevenson win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$27.99
Will Donald Trump attend Super Bowl LX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
Will Drake perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$36.36
Will Dua Lipa perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$20.95
Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Post Malone perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$37.94
Will Green Day perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$21.92
Will Bad Bunny perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.58
All 9 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+962.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+962.1%+$619.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$12.51
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.