Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6427da636a22cf7afaefb5aac5ca314c5ca5767aa46c095312a5a9c319f84e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,600
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,600 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20e6…95c4backed Yes | 8c | 9,669$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 6c | 7,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,225$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…9e5cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,713$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,172$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.77 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 7c | 3,031$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,990$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.3 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 1,774$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…45ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,234$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…4aa0backed Yes | 5c | 1,006$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 935.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…cb07backed Yes | 6c | 830$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 4c | 815.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…3972backed Yes | 5c | 805.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +204.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 5c | 650$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 4c | 605.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 511.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 4c | 505.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 4c | 417$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30eb…a5f3backed Yes | 6c | 412.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 407.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…a21cbacked Yes | 7c | 353$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 319.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…8531backed Yes | 4c | 318.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a9…39febacked Yes | 5c | 282$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 280.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 80 | 10%8 W · 72 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 230.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…683abacked Yes | 6c | 230.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 34c | 207.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705c…4e11backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 179.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeb35…4af4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.