TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5fc5…610e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
534
Categories scored
30
Categories below 50
22

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT5728.1%16 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+90.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 57 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+3,307.5%+$500.96
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$94.86
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.1
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.36
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.43
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.96
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$246
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.24
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.9
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 3-6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.88
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.5
Will Tisza win 110–119 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$9.59
Will Tisza win at least 130 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 115-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.02
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Prince Andrew charged by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.25
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.67
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+701.9%+$604
Showing 25 of 57 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT545.6%3 W · 51 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 54 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.69
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.71
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.44
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.72
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $3.50 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.78
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.35
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.24
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.41
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$207.79
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.88
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.02
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.27
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.65
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$30.91
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.09
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$58.39
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$78.22
Will Claude 5 not be released by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.73
Moltbook shutdown by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.97
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$193.99
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+583.2%+$76.83
GPT-5.3 released by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Showing 25 of 54 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Will "War Machine" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.19
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$304.12
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.98
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.91
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.73
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.83
Will F1 win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.49
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.59
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+430.9%+$131.69
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.36
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.97
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.77
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.66
Will Sentimental Value win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.82
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.69
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.95
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.02
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.07
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.79
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$19.43
Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.62
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$20.29
Will "Crime 101" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$38.53
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Noam Chomsky be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.94
Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.42
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.87
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.28
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.56
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.67
Les Wexner charged by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.66
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+1,488.9%+$1,539.16
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+461.8%+$82.2
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.2
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.23
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$127.16
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
ICE forced to unmask by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.58
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$128.98
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$57.2
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+3,408.8%+$874.26
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$51.75
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+25%+$7.92
Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+38.9%+$4.6
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3622.2%8 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-69.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oliver Adams Larkin be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.53
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.85
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.75
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will David Williams be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.35
Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.28
Will Julie Emerson be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.03
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.4
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.91
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.98
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.25
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.05
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.67
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$108.6
Will Douglas T. Muck Jr. be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$6.9
Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.58
Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.82
Will Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.02
Will Nikema Williams be the Democratic Nominee for GA-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.09
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3528.6%10 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+137.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.6
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.85
Will Iran strike UAE by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.48
Israel strike on Damascus by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.36
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+2,575%+$394.73
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+473.7%+$104.18
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Iran strike on US military by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,100%+$183.33
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+809.1%+$89
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$52.78
Nothing Ever Happens: Khameneibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+525%+$168.01
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,150%+$552
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$146
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+30.3%+$27.92
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+29%+$39.37
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+601.1%+$523
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$67.5
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.42
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17.06
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the February decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$28.99
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$18.02
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$13.46
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT3411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-62.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.43
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$24.43
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.96
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+525%+$168
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.23
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.93
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$252.06
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.24
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.6
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.09
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.2
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.59
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.78
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.06
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.3
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT2913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dave and Buster's Entertainment (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+587.7%+$70.37
Will Accenture (ACN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.24
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will DICK'S Sporting Goods (DKS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.62
Will Sprinklr (CXM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Caseys General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.87
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$19.05
Will Autodesk (ADSK) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will Intuit (INTU) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.68
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$55.02
Will Zoom Communications (ZM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$118.81
Will Akamai Technologies (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15.21
Will Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$15.01
Will Charles River Laboratories International (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$18.75
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+1,594.4%+$497.76
Will Alphabet (GOOGL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$36.07
Will New York Times Company (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21.88
Will Pfizer Inc (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.38
Will Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Moog (MOG.A) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Will 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$24.87
Will BlackRock (BLK) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.39
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,037.4%+$103.83
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.37
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+1,170.7%+$411.5
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.84
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.86
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.61
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.67
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.19
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.58
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.59
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.57
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.34
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.34
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$158
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+568%+$691.19
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.55
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+26.6%+$10.5
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+1,489.9%+$292.81
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 23 above $165?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.09
Will Netflix reach $105 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$18.51
Will NVIDIA reach $208 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$11.22
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+47.1%+$16
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$16.77
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Microsoft dip to $465 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+108.3%+$26
Will Microsoft (MSFT) hit $500 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$74.5
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $290 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$2.93
Will Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $460–480 in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+33.3%+$12.5
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$500 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15.58
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$39
Will Google dip to $270 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
Will Microsoft dip to $435 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Meta (META) close above $560 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$21.3
All 23 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT1915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-79.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.5
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$63
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$118
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$40.44
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$41.25
Over $200M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$61.68
HumidiFi FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17.35
HumidiFi FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25.64
HumidiFi FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.67
HumidiFi FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12.89
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+28%+$46.11
Over 25,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$37.12
Over 30,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25.7
Over 20,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$596.6
Over 35,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20.07
Over 50,000 ETH committed to the Aztec public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$12.77
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$13.85
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick30cpaid+5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$55.3
Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+1,295.3%+$185.67
US confirms Havana Syndrome–causing device by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.76
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Megaquake by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.61
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$18.4
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19.7
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$40.45
Megaquake by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30.15
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.8
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+29.9%+$9.16
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$79.56
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$10.42
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT170%0 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.2
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.91
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.92
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.27
Will the Fed Cut–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Dec–Jan–Mar)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$306.02
Will there be a new supreme leader of Iran before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$32.98
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$213Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$213.13
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$361.96
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$19.96
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$138.37
'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?backed 25 bps cut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$49
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15.98
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$83.33
All 17 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-91.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.3
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.98
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.81
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.76
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.59
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.63
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.2
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.05
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.4
Will the Los Angeles Lakers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.66
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025–2026 NBA Northwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.84
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Atlanta Hawks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10.53
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+27.3%+$6.76
All 15 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-90.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.45
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$138
Another US strike on Venezuela by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.73
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15.8
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$148
Maduro leaves Venezuela by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.29
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.95
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$159.8
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+37%+$27
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$44.78
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$18.37
All 14 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+117.2%+$15.02
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.66
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.58
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.92
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.82
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.61
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.16
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+400%+$144.77
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zuffa Boxing 4: Opetaia vs. Glanton (Cruiserweight, Main)backed Glanton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.03
Zuffa Boxing 4: Alvarado vs. Rosado (Featherweight, Prelims)backed Rosado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Zuffa Boxing 4: Panin vs. Bunch (Welterweight, Prelims)backed Panin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$28.6
Zuffa Boxing 4: Palma vs. Jr. (Featherweight, Main)backed Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+150%+$17.99
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.43
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$18.09
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$59.38
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$239.09
All 8 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+99.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.9
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.51
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.