Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde59eb12d813c8f9bd5988c4ec2227c4218468cef5058cf4793756c31e9e4538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $142,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 13c | 10,365$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.24 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 9c | 7,441$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 15c | 5,988$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…dff2backed No | 8c | 4,546$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 10c | 3,485$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked No | 63c | 3,000$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,899.99 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 74c | 2,722$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.05 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 21c | 2,674$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.27 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 13c | 2,220$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.34 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 40c | 2,155$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.16 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 1,559$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.2 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 54c | 1,495$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6def…7096backed No | 6c | 1,481$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +889.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked No | 5c | 1,129$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed Yes | 42c | 1,069$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…de64backed No | 43c | 1,048$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 61c | 776$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed No | 13c | 764.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 14c | 704.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b4…cf0bbacked Yes | 68c | 578.57$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 67c | 572.62$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.98 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed No | 6c | 523.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 6c | 517.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 7c | 476.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 15c | 428.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.39 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 63c | 421$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.42 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…d8efbacked No | 54c | 402.29$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…e294backed No | 22c | 395.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 14c | 374.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169c…33adbacked No | 6c | 364.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 11c | 346$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 30c | 330.88$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 18c | 330$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 15c | 328.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 7c | 307$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 26c | 297.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed No | 76c | 290.23$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…d472backed No | 15c | 257.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f6…a4f9backed No | 14c | 235.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee0…aa9fbacked Yes | 74c | 231$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…6284backed No | 6c | 208.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7593…e677backed No | 9c | 202.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 6c | 202$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 64c | 200$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 60c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 199.66$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…bd98backed No | 8c | 199.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 76c | 185$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…f2e2backed No | 38c | 179.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed No | 26c | 171.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 26c | 170.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…7216backed No | 12c | 166.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…7dc1backed No | 18c | 164.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x000c…a059backed No | 9c | 163.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed No | 11c | 161.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 29c | 159.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 10c | 152.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…1a1abacked No | 52c | 142.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 8c | 128$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 127$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…510dbacked No | 12c | 124.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eff…8897backed No | 15c | 120.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 74c | 101.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0245…efd6backed No | 18c | 98.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 91.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 46c | 75.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 51c | 70$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…6d17backed Yes | 50c | 59.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 49c | 57.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.13 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d28…985dbacked No | 53c | 56.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 32c | 55.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…f126backed No | 53c | 55.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x075d…21fbbacked Yes | 49c | 47.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 55c | 44.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…98debacked Yes | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 29c | 36.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 75c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…9fd1backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…4048backed Yes | 47c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.