Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3537351b374625e72a483b2cd15352729ca53c6eacfe7e8b2d2328ed8326c0c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f7b…8ed8backed Yes | 32c | 16,880$5,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,461.78 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 31c | 4,726$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.73 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 3,658$2,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.77 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…cc95backed Yes | 27c | 1,823$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 1,601$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.62 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +101.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,472$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 65c | 1,358$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.28 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.4 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 15c | 799.45$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 780.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 10c | 700$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 642.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…ec61backed Yes | 4c | 595.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 3c | 543.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 80c | 529.34$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 15c | 519.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c10…49e3backed Yes | 12c | 405.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 18c | 346.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 27c | 334.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes | 9c | 299.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 79c | 292.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 36c | 285$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x018b…7d89backed Yes | 5c | 283.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked Yes | 16c | 249.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 7c | 236.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 207.55$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…176dbacked Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked No | 67c | 148.1$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 7c | 141.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 72c | 137.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…b759backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 94.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 33c | 90.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd933…e294backed Yes | 13c | 77.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 74.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…6d17backed No | 64c | 45.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +97%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 37.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c6…8390backed No | 67c | 31.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked No | 65c | 21.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 63c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?this page
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% or less in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in March?No won
- Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.