TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdf40…38b8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
1,499
Categories scored
34
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Stocks, grading 68 out of 100 (+0.16 per pick).

Best Category Stocks at 68 out of 100; worst IPO at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT58349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 583 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$436.32
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+97.9%+$105.85
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+84.9%+$128.07
Will fewer than 70 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+101.6%+$24.72
Will 70 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$82.2
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.14
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$53
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$62.25
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$43.94
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$111
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on April 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.33
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+90.8%+$36.03
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.81
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$148.12
Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$196.18
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.28
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.61
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.63
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$47.96
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on March 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$176.68
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.44
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$49.44
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$85
Showing 25 of 583 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT20749.3%102 W · 105 L-23.0wins-0.11per pick60cpaid-24.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 207 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+46%+$62.99
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.53
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$80.51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$378Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.6%+$123.1
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.8%+$31.88
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$274.76
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$345Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$345.13
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+89.4%+$98.45
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.14
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$135.48
Will Iran strike Oman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$66
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$185.63
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$26.81
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$43.2
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$13.42
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$90.64
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$397Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$227.75
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.83
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.82
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.73
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$7.9
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.53
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Showing 25 of 207 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10652.8%56 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 106 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$67.03
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$835Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+79.4%+$663.4
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$74.29
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,217Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$656.11
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+78%+$96.4
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$443.78
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.15
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.12
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$177.06
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$502Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$501.57
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+107.7%+$65.19
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+55%+$17.78
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$182.82
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$687Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$211.2
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$830.04
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$258Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.84
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.31
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+48.1%+$63.79
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$45.9
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$244Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$113.41
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.74
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$69
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.5
Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.74
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.41
Showing 25 of 106 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT9058.9%53 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 90 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.34
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+48.2%+$41.68
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$283.24
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$105.9
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$101.53
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.59
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$72.46
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.24
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.31
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$521Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$152.26
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.2
Will Khamenei post 0-19 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+65.7%+$139.45
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+52.1%+$587.26
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.61
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.87
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$183.08
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+32.3%+$50.93
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$62
Showing 25 of 90 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8752.9%46 W · 41 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 87 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$254.26
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.82
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.66
Will Project Hail Mary be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.52
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$606Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$232.81
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.06
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.23
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$174.65
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$101.08
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.96
Will "They Will Kill You" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.17
Will "Forbidden Fruits" score at least 76 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.14
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$489Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+44.2%+$216.11
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.95
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$111.22
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.3
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m and 13m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$24.86
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$319Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$104.89
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.08
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$111.99
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.18
Will "One Piece: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$68.75
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.57
Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 29m and 32m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$41.94
Showing 25 of 87 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT8650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+94.7%+$104.55
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+68.7%+$81.33
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$63.02
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+67.5%+$109.23
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$96.63
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.62
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$113.89
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$54.76
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.52
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.94
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$616.06
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+105.5%+$23.1
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.23
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.69
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$39.78
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$58.49
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+89.2%+$106.6
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$120.89
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+123.9%+$123.53
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$913Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+41.8%+$381.29
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+233.9%+$74.09
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.18
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$269.96
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+175.1%+$127.3
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$46
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT5945.8%27 W · 32 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-29.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 59 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.23
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.59
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.33
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$176
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.09
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$192.32
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$338.97
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$5.61
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.39
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.59
USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.17
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$287
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$499Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$290.36
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$611Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$611.16
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,245Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.3%+$1,011.79
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$758Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+86.3%+$653.5
Will MegaETH launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.3%+$41.89
Over $16M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$526Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.1%+$395.18
Over $20M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.3%+$71.53
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$166.24
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$548Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$447.96
Based FDV above $75M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.99
Over $18M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$176.2
Showing 25 of 59 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 46 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$242Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+116.2%+$280.89
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28%+$76.38
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$85.88
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$52
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+76.6%+$390.26
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+103.6%+$51.24
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 375M by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+100.6%+$206.02
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$103.56
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.85
Will Iran strike Ras Laffan Industrial City again by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$9.95
Will Iran strike Habshan Field or any Processing Plants of the Habshan Complex by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+73.9%+$85
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$462Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$289.71
Houthis successfully target shipping by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+85.1%+$260.61
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$27.51
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.39
Will Iran strike Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.9
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+26%+$60.62
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.2
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,582Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+44.1%+$697.98
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$113.71
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+122.3%+$55.54
Showing 25 of 46 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT3857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.18
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44.03
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.28
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+104.8%+$104.65
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Mark Baisley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.74
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.21
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+32%+$99.9
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+77.1%+$317.88
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$394Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+28.5%+$112.33
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$323Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$323.29
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$84.73
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.4
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.35
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+182.1%+$92.16
Will Andy Barr be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.96
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+129.1%+$89.29
Will Matt Pinnell replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Will Kevin Wilson be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+436.9%+$162.75
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+59%+$128.34
Will Donna Miller be the Democratic Nominee for IL-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.76
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+35.5%+$138.36
Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$149
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$508Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$507.57
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3060%18 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.91
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$84.05
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$9.6
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+131.5%+$63.09
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$49.67
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+47.5%+$220.78
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$317Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+72.3%+$228.89
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$336.8
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$261Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$103.14
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$37.09
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$45.05
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+68.9%+$61.2
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$606Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$180.14
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$114.91
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.97
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.92
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$914Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$914.03
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.88
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$531Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$219.49
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$545.71
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$119
Will Ukraine re-enter Novomykolaivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.19
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$156.28
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2975.9%22 W · 7 L+8.7wins+0.30per pick46cpaid+58.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
Stocks — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+174.2%+$112.99
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$53.29
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.34
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 3% on any day in Q1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$26.28
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 23 above $580?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$33.4
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 9 above $5.00?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$123.59
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of March 9 above $100?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$40.61
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $5.00?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+32.3%+$28.9
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $142?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $175?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.58
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $136?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65.84
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $170?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$19.77
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $185?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+44.9%+$31
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $180?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+96%+$190.71
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 2 above $400?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+210.3%+$206.72
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $650?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+122.2%+$112.76
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $660?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+140.8%+$67.04
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 2 above $670?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+61.2%+$56.27
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of March 2 above $395?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 2 above $4.00?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$16.66
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 2 above $215?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+463.1%+$133.28
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $300?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+195%+$296.78
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $305?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+76.9%+$92.21
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $260?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+115.3%+$107.09
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of March 2 above $265?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+97.4%+$51.8
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT2245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$536Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.4%+$275.45
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.36
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$197.75
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$26
Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$270.59
Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+38%+$24.54
Will Powell say "Balance Sheet" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+117.8%+$173.11
Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+64.9%+$152.59
Will Powell say "Nothing" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+97.3%+$14.68
Will Powell say "Iran" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$404Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+48%+$194.04
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.31
Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.66
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.73
Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+27.9%+$34.82
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.32
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+153.7%+$121.07
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.47
All 22 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+55.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Music — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$136.44
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+76.2%+$37.02
Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+500.2%+$99.84
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+49.1%+$65.84
Will France be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+52%+$42.28
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+408.4%+$183.4
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Drake officially release Iceman by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+87.7%+$248.27
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$81.21
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.09
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,943Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+60.2%+$1,170.26
Will "Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress, Zara Larsson" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+159.6%+$322.11
Will "Choosin' Texas" by Ella Langley be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.87
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.36
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$428Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+53.4%+$228.74
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Fedez & Marco Masini win Sanremo 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.8%+$50
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$61.12
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$246Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+59.1%+$145.63
All 19 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+59.8%+$76.74
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$22.36
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+162.2%+$105.12
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.6
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–2.50 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.06
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.8% or more in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.8
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+35.7%+$34.77
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$106.34
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$79
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.5% and 2.7%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+42.4%+$58.39
Will Argentina’s monthly inflation in February 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.86
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.71
Will annual inflation increase by 2.4% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$491Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$490.6
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+48%+$149.21
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+31.7%+$20.49
Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+33.3%+$4.12
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+54.7%+$91.08
All 17 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.30per pick53cpaid-66.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
IPO — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.55
Will Fannie Mae not IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.13
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.59
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.87
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$88.99
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+38%+$29.72
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$157
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.17
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.84
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.84
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$752Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$395.4
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.19
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$35.31
SAVE America Act becomes law by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$53.64
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$440Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$120.7
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.74
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+77%+$334.77
Will the DHS shutdown last 80 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$900.11
Will the DHS shutdown end before April 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$97
Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.3%+$31.38
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.2%+$8.31
All 11 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitality win Blast Open Rotterdam 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.37
Will Team Vitality win PGL Cluj-Napoca 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.23
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paper Rex win Masters Santiago 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+97.2%+$107.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$85.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$10.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 The Genesis Invitational?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+50%+$40.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$173.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+29.2%+$14.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$44.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.54
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.