TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,162
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,901

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,162 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8cd…02cdbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8564…0306backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ef…9aefbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c9,881$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes2c9,185$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c5,137$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.98303.3%1 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes53c3,237$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.785642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes2c2,209$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.315747.4%27 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+69.2%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes4c1,923$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.996322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes51c1,632$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.2511522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,483$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5749511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes13c1,368$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.044936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed Yes47c1,036$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.26837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes1c999.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114119.5%8 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes27c999.98$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27224433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes55c976.97$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.851428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8acf…2f7bbacked Yes46c896$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.16333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cc8…05b5backed Yes59c887.14$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.021369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes44c862.22$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.257749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No38c821.56$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.9616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x274e…648cbacked Yes3c803.32$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214953.1%26 W · 23 L+10.8wins+0.22per pick31cpaid+87.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes53c795.65$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4181070%7 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No54c795$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.7862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No47c791.93$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.9121155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb24…ac2cbacked Yes48c781.6$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.371258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed No42c743.23$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.261662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes44c645$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-69.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed No56c596$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+111.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes51c590$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes50c587$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5233238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed No54c572$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9081…0b1ebacked No53c565$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dcc…00c9backed Yes53c534.83$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c525.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8710722.4%24 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed Yes46c525$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.51154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked No46c492.27$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.65475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+35.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc97d…732bbacked Yes17c487.89$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.617925.3%20 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No56c487$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No43c467.86$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.172520%5 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-67.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes22c444.47$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.143043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes41c426.23$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.2418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed Yes46c418$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.281241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e4e…6533backed No54c418$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked No53c418$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.46580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+28.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1099…d7a3backed Yes49c409.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes56c405.01$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9315445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes39c400$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3419631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0241…162abacked Yes44c400$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ad…7d31backed Yes57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…deeebacked Yes57c378.69$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.59742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes11c350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.57437.8%28 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes9c344.48$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.39812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No49c339.65$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.7534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes28c326.54$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.843961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No44c319.09$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9233421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes57c306.99$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6822948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked No76c281.8$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.282259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No48c257.82$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.7913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes58c256.29$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.453145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ee8…1b93backed Yes40c242.63$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972040%8 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No49c204.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.653857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafa3…c3ddbacked No47c198$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.94666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a10…e7d3backed Yes44c196$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes57c187$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.597843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No44c183.59$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10212150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No57c181.3$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8324831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No42c180.33$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.696653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes53c176$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.28812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick34cpaid-70.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No65c175.38$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x53d7…dae3backed No50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed No56c158$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes53c157$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.211040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes60c148.87$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.847339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c6…7d80backed Yes29c147.76$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.51968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8a94…7154backed Yes53c139$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.671070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+82.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No43c137$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.097852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No47c131$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No52c130$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.212330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No47c129$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.37450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+100.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No48c127$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.04633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc465…f704backed Yes46c125$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes52c123.36$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0116632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ce…c842backed No53c120.09$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.931030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2408…bc8abacked No46c114$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Yes44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+49%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb920…7922backed Yes61c110$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.812544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes53c107.46$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.951225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes52c105$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1527222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf738…56bdbacked No54c101$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecda…6f0abacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.67333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd62…6a7ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes65c99.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.991947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes53c95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.35728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-5.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes37c94$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4424861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xabfe…6ad4backed No54c92$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.15475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba6b…b341backed Yes52c86$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.72837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes53c83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x53f8…5ce0backed Yes55c80.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e55…59d2backed No47c80$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.