TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9081…0b1e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$311.52
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$29.4
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$41.28
Will Rose Byrne be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$90.72
Will Sydney Sweeney be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$23.49
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.18
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$664Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$221.25
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+43.2%+$58.83
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+58.7%+$115.81
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$287.2
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+40.8%+$119.48
Will Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) win Best Actress – Limited Series at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+222.6%+$240.81
Will Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) win Best Actor – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$291Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+43.5%+$126.65
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$134.64
Will Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) win Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$182.28
Will Amy Madigan (Weapons) win Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$564Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$219.24
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+104.1%+$223.89
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$93.33
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$84.15
Will Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+69.5%+$21.73
Will "Zootopia 2" 5-Day Opening Box Office be less than 157m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+97.2%+$32.05
All 23 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+19%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.92
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$160.58
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.67
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$321Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$151.04
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$125.06
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.65
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+52%+$319.43
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$20.41
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$186Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$104.4
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$260.82
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.37
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$336Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+36.8%+$123.47
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.5
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$67.2
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.25
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$41.16
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$92.4
All 17 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+89.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+42.9%+$66.9
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$58.87
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$82.17
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$163.71
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+194.1%+$290.4
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$158.36
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+733.3%+$511.28
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+31.6%+$87.12
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$68.8
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$188.25
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+132.6%+$83.86
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$23.1
All 12 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.92
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+52.7%+$195.3
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+354.5%+$461.76
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$242.9
Will Jensen Huang say "TSMC" during NVIDIA keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$127.98
Nothing Ever Happens: AI Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+81.8%+$27.45
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$19.31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+34%+$10.16
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$53.58
Will: Canelo Alvarez be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$21.56
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+112.8%+$25.97
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.96
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$265.55
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$200.2
Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+212.5%+$200.6
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$130.65
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$151.76
Will Mark Teixeira be the Republican nominee for TX-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+185.7%+$158.6
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$271Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$271.32
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$433Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$433.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+59.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the Atlantic Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$590.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$386.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+56.3%+$50.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon and Ole Miss win their 2026 CFP semifinal games?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$49.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$283Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$283.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$76.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.