Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be nine or ten announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494476a4025ea3c63727c96fc51c2dfa18a4584fbf06f76670c57917af62b600
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 18c | 1,630$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 1,085$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.44 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked Yes | 19c | 1,027$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 18c | 977$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0f…af26backed Yes | 16c | 906$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…65c5backed Yes | 19c | 881$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…f98ebacked No | 80c | 879$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +497.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 18c | 821$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 19c | 802$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 20c | 748$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked No | 80c | 704.34$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 18c | 701$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 80c | 692$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Yes | 15c | 650.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed Yes | 18c | 645$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 18c | 643$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 18c | 620.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09be…76d5backed Yes | 20c | 599$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9081…0b1ebacked Yes | 18c | 577$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked No | 80c | 545$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked Yes | 18c | 524$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 477.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 20c | 446$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 425.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 19c | 422$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 18c | 415$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked Yes | 19c | 408$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…669dbacked Yes | 18c | 396$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed Yes | 19c | 395$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes | 18c | 376$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 20c | 367.78$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +63%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 19c | 350$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed Yes | 18c | 349$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed Yes | 19c | 345$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 19c | 343$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 20c | 340$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 19c | 326$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 19c | 318$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 19c | 318$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f2…6a72backed Yes | 19c | 315$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed No | 80c | 311$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 9c | 309.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ceb…7fc8backed Yes | 19c | 309$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 18c | 302$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 20c | 295$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 80c | 281.11$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 20c | 278$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfec…09a7backed Yes | 19c | 274$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 18c | 249$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked No | 80c | 242$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked Yes | 19c | 233$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 79c | 212.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 19c | 208$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 18c | 198$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed No | 79c | 192$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44b…eb27backed Yes | 12c | 173$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 19c | 164$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 20c | 148.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…3256backed Yes | 16c | 148.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 139.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 11c | 133.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…9ef2backed Yes | 20c | 131$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 18c | 125$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92b…f80bbacked Yes | 20c | 124.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +106%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked Yes | 18c | 116$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 114.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 110.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…0c79backed Yes | 18c | 105$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked No | 80c | 87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed Yes | 18c | 79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…421dbacked Yes | 17c | 75.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 21c | 65.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 64.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +38%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 17c | 59.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…71efbacked Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f2…96cfbacked No | 80c | 47.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +3.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +478.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2825…7749backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be nine or ten announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be five or six announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be one or two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be seven or eight announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be three or four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.