TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6a88…513e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
72
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst AI at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.92
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$635.5
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.66
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.7
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.9
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.6
Will Iran strike a Gulf State on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$76.14
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$166.16
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+488.2%+$302.95
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$151.84
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$374Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+58.7%+$219.41
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+33.3%+$121
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.1
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$182.85
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+117.4%+$192.78
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$182.7
Will No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.1%+$10.4
Will Elle Fanning be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$13.5
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25.5
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$86.8
Will "His & Hers" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will "The Secret Agent" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+270.4%+$229.22
Will Owen Cooper (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actor – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$157.08
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$482.76
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 9, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$163Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+63.9%+$104.52
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$101.89
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA Clutch Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+350.5%+$453.57
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$350.56
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$468
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025–2026 NBA Central Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.25
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.36
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$124.54
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.43
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.25
All 10 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-73.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+553.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$6.25
Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+53.8%+$11.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick21cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+240.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+240.1%+$27.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+146.3%+$68.31
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$398.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+104.1%+$324.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Querétaro FC vs. FC Juárez: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$303.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$88.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$152.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.