NFL · resolved market
Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf602c8ab86f078788655ca2a51ec813490d3ff0c8829fa6eab817ed0b6327d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 1,972$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 45c | 1,088$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,025$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 52c | 854$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5629…dcefbacked No | 6c | 794.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…7260backed Yes | 55c | 756$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked No | 45c | 728$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 45c | 725$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 55c | 721$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 48c | 692$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed No | 45c | 638$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 55c | 637$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed Yes | 72c | 626$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes | 55c | 618$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa71…9767backed Yes | 59c | 612$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 45c | 590$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed No | 51c | 539$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked No | 28c | 535$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…3ae1backed No | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…6eeabacked No | 12c | 489.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 486.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 13c | 469.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6159…7501backed No | 45c | 452$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbec…8dccbacked No | 52c | 437$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 49c | 422$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 9c | 412.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed Yes | 55c | 410$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 55c | 405$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked No | 28c | 392$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed No | 6c | 384.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…3497backed No | 52c | 379$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…3a93backed Yes | 71c | 356$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 29c | 356$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 41c | 353$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 45c | 349$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes | 55c | 347$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed No | 41c | 346$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes | 59c | 346$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed No | 45c | 345$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…09adbacked Yes | 48c | 337$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…c0eebacked No | 45c | 328$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 55c | 316$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…dc10backed No | 45c | 312$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…32d9backed No | 45c | 311$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 51c | 310$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed No | 45c | 305$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes | 72c | 293$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked No | 45c | 289$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 48c | 284$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed Yes | 55c | 273$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 7c | 270.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed No | 52c | 269$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…e885backed No | 28c | 257$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 45c | 253$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes | 55c | 253$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed No | 45c | 248$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked No | 52c | 246$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7407…19bebacked Yes | 72c | 246$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes | 55c | 232$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a88…513ebacked Yes | 49c | 229$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 41c | 223$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked No | 45c | 212$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…3e96backed Yes | 55c | 212$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 5c | 201.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked Yes | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…3562backed Yes | 55c | 169$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa18…7693backed Yes | 55c | 161$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…c0edbacked No | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…b624backed No | 7c | 134.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 55c | 126$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53c…00acbacked No | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 111.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…f15fbacked No | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…d567backed Yes | 75c | 97.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 47c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.8 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4984…69d2backed Yes | 55c | 88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 41c | 76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 55c | 66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…277bbacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed No | 45c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc161…7f9abacked No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…8d50backed No | 52c | 26.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?this page
- Will Jim Harbaugh be fired by February 28?No won
- Will John Harbaugh be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Kevin Stefanski be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Matt LaFleur be fired by February 28?No won
- Will Mike McCoy be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Mike Tomlin be fired by February 28?Yes won
- Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.