TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Mike Kafka be fired by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,702
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,591

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,702 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa815…9cbebacked No7c1,972$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.74300%0 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No45c1,088$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d05…305bbacked Yes48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.84250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes55c1,025$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed No52c854$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5629…dcefbacked No6c794.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed Yes55c756$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+88.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked No45c728$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No45c725$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+64.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bef…1e38backed Yes55c721$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.45955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+67.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed Yes48c692$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.84425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed No45c638$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.1540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+60.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes55c637$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed Yes72c626$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick66cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked Yes55c618$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+38.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes59c612$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…1272backed Yes55c600$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2702100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+71.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked No45c590$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No51c539$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.89837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked No28c535$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed No7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc501…6eeabacked No12c489.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c486.72$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.715679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No13c469.3$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.893839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…7501backed No45c452$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbec…8dccbacked No52c437$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes49c422$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.221258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+49.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No9c412.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.761330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed Yes55c410$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes55c405$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked No28c392$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c0…28f4backed No6c384.76$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe43b…3497backed No52c379$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.88955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6278…3a93backed Yes71c356$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No29c356$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed No41c353$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.73650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked No45c349$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.05450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes55c347$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.15580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+51.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc7…8211backed No41c346$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.86425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes59c346$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed No45c345$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked Yes48c337$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.24366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cae…c0eebacked No45c328$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.61136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes55c316$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed No45c312$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea6…32d9backed No45c311$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.95425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x533d…e5ecbacked No51c310$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-67.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed No45c305$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3c…a29ebacked Yes72c293$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked No45c289$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.05475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+106.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes48c284$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.68450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes55c273$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.851136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No7c270.49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-57.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed No52c269$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bb…e885backed No28c257$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.96650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No45c253$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes55c253$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+101.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed No45c248$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked No52c246$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.92560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+100.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Yes72c246$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed Yes55c232$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes55c230$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a88…513ebacked Yes49c229$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No41c223$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.43560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+92.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No45c212$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed Yes55c212$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No5c201.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2370%0 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Yes49c198$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.98850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed No52c190$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed Yes55c169$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.05728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-54.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed Yes55c161$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.35815.5%9 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a5…c0edbacked No45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8dc6…b624backed No7c134.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes55c126$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf53c…00acbacked No45c118$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No15c111.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.897910.1%8 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No24c108$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9531439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd907…f15fbacked No45c107$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x319b…d567backed Yes75c97.88$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes47c95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4984…69d2backed Yes55c88$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-69.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No41c76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.16944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes55c66$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2131…277bbacked Yes58c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed No45c57$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc161…7f9abacked No47c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x886b…73d1backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f3…8d50backed No52c26.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610948.6%53 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes72c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.