TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will Mike McDaniel be fired by February 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd42…8895backed No13c2,306$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.781323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+54.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed No77c1,918$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.52616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-79.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xda64…9bc5backed Yes28c1,528$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes15c1,438$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,221.38622.1%19 W · 67 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.842516%4 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x533d…ceeebacked No12c1,332$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.841414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+52.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe02f…669fbacked No7c1,300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3798…27fabacked No5c1,200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602516%4 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+136.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes29c1,115$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5099…7d87backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20190%0 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8959…50f8backed No70c994$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.8560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd7d…5bc1backed Yes29c978$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.38666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+101.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea1…6487backed No70c956$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.2825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes22c844$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.321127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…26f0backed No7c800$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf298…12f8backed Yes30c789$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+83%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed Yes30c776$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked No71c775$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc713…891fbacked Yes30c759$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e7…52cabacked Yes19c725.44$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.441546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed No78c722$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc40a…1f50backed No78c717$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.26425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4657…00d6backed Yes30c703$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+129.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked No75c660$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No71c655$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x897e…fe19backed Yes12c650$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5722100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick44cpaid+383.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes14c648$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.281258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+49.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b69…6622backed Yes29c630$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked No71c625.22$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.1510434.6%36 W · 68 L-6.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8307…ad90backed No5c599.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes30c589$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+80.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb023…6d90backed No70c562$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes33c560$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.2875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+103.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6e7…caa8backed No5c550$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26549.3%5 W · 49 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1617…ec98backed No71c549$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…7260backed No70c539$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+88.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1f3…09e0backed Yes31c539$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.85650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x71d2…e109backed No71c516$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.36812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d18…4972backed Yes29c500$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3556219.4%12 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes29c481$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+59.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ead…6c75backed No69c475$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…0da3backed No67c472$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.2440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3024…0c79backed Yes30c447$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.9650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes29c444$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.24757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes30c439$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.3520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No70c423$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.140%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes31c420$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83be…6f94backed No69c379$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.6540%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed No71c374$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No68c373.95$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.032744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2945…862ebacked Yes14c361.51$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+623%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe136…cacebacked No69c340$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No71c337$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.27560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+45.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde08…f416backed Yes16c312.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+64.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc336…9f48backed No67c308$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3670%0 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xed45…929dbacked No71c302$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.42650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed No56c299.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1683129%9 W · 22 L-5.6wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No71c293$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Yes30c289$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.31450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca67…703cbacked Yes30c289$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes31c278$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.821241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf40f…7fc6backed Yes29c267$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+160.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No71c267$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5730%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d0f…af26backed Yes30c266$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.86650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed No69c254.03$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1759052.2%47 W · 43 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No70c227$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ff…b38fbacked No70c201$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+131.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes33c186$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d4…5735backed No75c161$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+110.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f51…09adbacked No78c155$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c150.28$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2636826.9%99 W · 269 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1523024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes29c145$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.951050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd622…defcbacked Yes30c137$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.91747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c135.78$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.059947.5%47 W · 52 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No69c132$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4883147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes20c130$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.628047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes30c126.04$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed No67c124$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid+19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No67c117.29$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.033839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed Yes30c112$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7feb…6bc2backed No71c107$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.97425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed No70c102$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc210…8b21backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+46.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218213.4%11 W · 71 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d8…adfebacked Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x466e…ed99backed No70c98$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.6862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+34.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5383…88f0backed No67c88$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c72$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3831439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea25…d3aabacked Yes21c66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.14475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+106.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c52…ff83backed No75c64.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.346165.6%40 W · 21 L+7.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x5db0…73f1backed Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.36per pick49cpaid+117.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x6d2b…fd2cbacked Yes30c61$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes25c60.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.253023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed No76c60$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc763…e8d3backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2be…66b0backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick48cpaid+37.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad7f…0443backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.530%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes30c47$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.84425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a59…e94cbacked Yes33c46.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.156550.8%33 W · 32 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.