TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ea1…6487

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
175
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: CS2, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 54 out of 100; worst Movies at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT4047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.36
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$50.56
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$61.2
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$465.89
Will Mark Daignault win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.42
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$302Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$301.79
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$42.35
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.55
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.18
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.75
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$144.18
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.68
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$78.12
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.54
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$425Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+52.2%+$221.97
Will Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$216.36
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$563Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$291.13
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.03
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$88.92
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+163.3%+$49.61
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$477Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$476.52
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$450.45
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$174.3
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win more than 49.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.99
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT4025%10 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Movies — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.34
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$76.5
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.04
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.01
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$46.8
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$39.2
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.17
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$45.88
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+56.3%+$148.68
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$203.25
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.12
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+51.5%+$48.62
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$78.06
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+177.8%+$176.64
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+163.2%+$34.72
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$70.29
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$27.03
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12.24
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$559.68
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$73.08
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+108.3%+$29.64
Will It Was Just an Accident be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$58.58
Will Wicked: For Good be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$165.02
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$91.47
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.16
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$63
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+400%+$551.2
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$187.92
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$125.72
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+82.2%+$388.89
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$126.36
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.96
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.00ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$46.2
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$309.53
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$49.68
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$10.5
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+284.6%+$48.1
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+49.3%+$60.39
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.9%+$17.81
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$92.71
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
All 18 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$406.56
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.83
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.76
Will Tesla deliver between 375000 and 400000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.1
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.22
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+376.2%+$124.75
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$927.02
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$71.5
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+61.2%+$256.98
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.75
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$70.08
Will Jensen Huang say "Lidar" during NVIDIA keynote?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$47.85
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$21.3
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.9%+$37.49
Will Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$85.26
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$39.38
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$115.44
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$79.3
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98.24
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$332.64
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$88.96
Will Donald Trump say "Syria" during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+88.7%+$154.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+117.4%+$92.88
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+66.7%+$107.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.04
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+363.7%+$472.18
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$17
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$121.67
Will Yolanda Flowers win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+25%+$3.4
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$95.48
Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$224.4
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$99.2
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$236.18
All 9 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.3
Will ETHGAS launch a token by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+33.3%+$46.25
Will ETHGAS launch a token by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+88.7%+$111.86
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$52.44
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$78.8
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$75.68
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+56.3%+$181.44
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$116.1
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$58.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$52.5
Will PLN win the second most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$44.66
Will PLN win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$34.72
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$534Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+29.9%+$159.62
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$312Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+98.6%+$307.31
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$60.06
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+25%+$91.4
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 25% and 30% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+69.5%+$39.77
All 8 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+108.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$734.28
Vitality Dominates HLTV Awards Parlay backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+78.6%+$66.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$566.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Pacific Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$506Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+104.4%+$528.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+67.5%+$54.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Texas Tech make the College Football Playoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amazon (AMZN) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.