Venezuela · resolved market
Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d440fb01c1e2f244a5a2a3c2badf84e6656344bfcbca580c3892c10cd28b5b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 7c | 3,062$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.04 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 1,962$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 1c | 1,153$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…b9b4backed Yes | 23c | 808$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 16c | 673$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 79c | 637$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked Yes | 21c | 409$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed Yes | 23c | 406$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 22c | 387$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…a127backed No | 77c | 377$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed No | 77c | 376$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed No | 78c | 330$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed Yes | 16c | 321$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 16c | 260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 21c | 223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 78c | 204$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 14c | 147.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…d64abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 16c | 126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…6284backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 124 | 25.8%32 W · 92 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 88.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly three announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?this page
- Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be exactly two announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
- Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?Yes won
- Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.