TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xab88…e0a4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
153
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Movies at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$400.8
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.59
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$7.6
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$11.84
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$29.5
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.75
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$47.56
Will Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+34.2%+$49.69
Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.34
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$159.57
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$58.94
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.01
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$739.11
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+399.3%+$121.56
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$74.24
Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$92.13
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$69.56
Will Joachim Trier be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$243.45
Will Chloé Zhao be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+26.6%+$23.73
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.2
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Language at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$125.32
Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+40.8%+$110.2
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$124.95
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$241.82
Will Erik Spoelstra win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.5
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.44
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.38
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$436.32
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$130.13
Will Cade Cunningham lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+67.2%+$487.22
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$185.76
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$201.46
Will Karl-Anthony Towns lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.81
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$51.48
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.55
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+155.5%+$154.58
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$420.76
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$240.23
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+130.1%+$158.34
Will the Washington Wizards win more than 20.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.98
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.93
Will the Boston Celtics make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.2
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$810Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$228.36
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.65
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$320.25
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$532Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$532.08
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$138.23
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+62.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Named storm forms before hurricane season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.2
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.19ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+26.6%+$57.33
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+25%+$31.2
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+40.8%+$121.51
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$136.35
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$32.76
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+624.6%+$308.6
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+317.4%+$337.62
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+669.2%+$200.1
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.5
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.68
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$4.39
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$395Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$394.58
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$22.05
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$44.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$519Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$146.52
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+162.8%+$363.65
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.3
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$65.28
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+194.1%+$105.6
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+376.2%+$147.73
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$205.7
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$352Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+96.1%+$338.1
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+141.5%+$792.86
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$38.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$206.66
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$226.31
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.94
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.92
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.02
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.72
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.83
Will Ha Phan advance from the CA-17 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$188.02
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$25.3
Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+38.9%+$54.04
Will Supha Xayprasith-Mays win the 2026 Arkansas Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$255.64
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$257Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$82
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+395.6%+$355.2
GPT ads by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$817Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$816.86
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$204.6
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+284.6%+$150.22
Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$51.12
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13.71
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$45.78
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 23, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+203.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-78.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+270.4%+$159.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+203%+$108.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+139.6%+$346.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$557Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$557.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.