Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9504d0074cc8dccb98f6c1e8ae836591cf2e649528c8df564eae428c0cc7e69b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed Yes | 13c | 944$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 13c | 588$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 486.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 13c | 399$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…8200backed Yes | 13c | 396$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 13c | 298$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 294.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 10c | 277.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 9c | 219$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 17c | 215$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253c…d353backed Yes | 6c | 168.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…5cfabacked Yes | 11c | 117.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2641…062fbacked Yes | 14c | 114$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?this page
- Will Aaron Ford win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.