Movies · resolved market

Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b6f34e3e4bc6669cd96e725d517632f960211f7fc32a75f110b8b71ca18e13

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 22, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $42,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $42,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,413 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Movies
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb862…5aaebacked No	14c	1,329$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.4	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25c…6d89backed No	13c	977$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.08	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No	13c	830$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.39	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.21per pick	49cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No	14c	788$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.84	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	+6.8wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed No	13c	757$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.14	28	35.7%10 W · 18 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked No	15c	744$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.86	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b63…52cfbacked No	13c	730$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.09	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa71…9767backed No	13c	703$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	20	45%9 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No	4c	661$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	299	26.4%79 W · 220 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ed7…b0a5backed No	15c	639$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.57	36	41.7%15 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No	15c	631$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.13	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb5f…f3dcbacked No	15c	577$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.4	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-5.2wins	-0.14per pick	41cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae6a…14f3backed No	19c	538.46$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed No	15c	535$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.18	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-37%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2247…96e8backed No	15c	494$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed No	13c	469$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.38	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	45cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39dd…1bb5backed No	13c	456$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.65	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd19a…5b88backed No	13c	404$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.31	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed No	15c	362$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-5.3wins	-0.21per pick	45cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes	70c	333$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.9	129	23.3%30 W · 99 L	-7.3wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No	5c	315$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	130	40%52 W · 78 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No	18c	289$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.02	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4653…65c5backed No	18c	267$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked No	13c	237$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.05	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No	17c	234$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.61	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No	8c	233.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.76	89	4.5%4 W · 85 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes	79c	227$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.67	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	9c	213.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	154	9.7%15 W · 139 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6cb…ac3dbacked No	14c	210$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b2…9ae2backed No	15c	208$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.41	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7703…e351backed No	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1587…901abacked No	17c	198$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x454e…62b9backed Yes	80c	195.85$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.17	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No	16c	185.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	140	15%21 W · 119 L	-6.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…bd0ebacked No	13c	181$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.97	43	34.9%15 W · 28 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No	15c	179$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.67	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.2wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed Yes	80c	175$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	32	46.9%15 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No	13c	169$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.31	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked No	21c	163$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f33…81f6backed No	18c	158$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No	8c	156$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked No	21c	146$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.66	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No	14c	146$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No	9c	136.74$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	170	10%17 W · 153 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x246b…1196backed No	30c	125$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes	79c	114$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.94	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	9c	114$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.12	482	36.3%175 W · 307 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	11c	106.26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	1,218	17.8%217 W · 1,001 L	-124.0wins	-0.10per pick	28cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed No	16c	105$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked No	16c	103$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed No	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No	18c	99.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	90	21.1%19 W · 71 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed No	16c	99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	29	31%9 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-38%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c4c…be9fbacked No	20c	98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.19per pick	37cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e46…e68dbacked No	18c	92$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed No	13c	89$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No	30c	80$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	131	35.1%46 W · 85 L	-14.0wins	-0.11per pick	46cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No	18c	70$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	-9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes	79c	54$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	23c	53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	870	33.3%290 W · 580 L	-77.0wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	42cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes	72c	45.55$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.89	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed No	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.23per pick	48cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
Will In Your Dreams be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Will KPop Demon Hunters be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event