TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5bcb…f59b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
168
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: IPO, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category IPO at 55 out of 100; worst Weather at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.06
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.72
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.33
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$146.28
Will "F1" win Best Sound at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$74.75
Will Mike Sweeney - Conan O'Brien Must Go win Best Director of a Reality / Quiz & Game at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+53.8%+$147.7
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$113.7
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+30.8%+$65.54
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$31.98
Will The Perfect Neighbor be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$372Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+40.8%+$151.96
Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$60.3
Will Little Amélie or the Character of Rain be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+37%+$48.6
Will Arco be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30.66
Will Jennifer Venditti (Marty Supreme) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+72.4%+$38.64
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$46.96
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54.06
Will Amy Madigan be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$424Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$126.73
Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$45.1
Will "Golden - KPop Demon Hunters" win Best Original Song - Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$43.74
Will Erin Doherty (Adolescence) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$315.19
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+38.9%+$216.16
"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+72.4%+$131.88
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Will "Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$18.89
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$18.58
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$40.27
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.26
Will the Los Angeles Clippers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$196.16
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56.32
Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$609.84
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.42
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.86
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.38
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$99.2
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$174.2
Will the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$47.36
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win more than 43.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.34
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.96
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.08
Will the Milwaukee Bucks make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will the Chicago Bulls make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+37%+$69.93
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win more than 35.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$235.45
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$104.72
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$57.68
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the New York Knicks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$30.24
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$89.6
Will Lauri Markkanen be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$51.98
Will Domantas Sabonis be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+49.3%+$90.42
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$275Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+33.6%+$92.37
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid+8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.16
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.95
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$347.13
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$65.52
Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$209.44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$209.05
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.84
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.72
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$212Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.86
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$181.3
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$217.35
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+400%+$63.2
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$437Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$436.59
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.40 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$34.92
Google Gemini Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$34.84
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$71.64
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.08
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.44
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+284.6%+$58.46
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.5
Will the assassination of Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$62.7
Will the Gaza–Israel conflict be the #1 searched news on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$85.44
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.93
Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.4
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$117.52
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$7.92
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$752Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$751.68
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$1,389.39
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$448Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+63.9%+$286.65
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$394.35
Will Trump say "Gaza" 5+ times during meeting with Netanyahu?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+72.4%+$172.2
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$364Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$364.2
Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.4%+$384.53
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$47.47
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.48
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+40.8%+$138.62
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$577Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$554.19
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$521.69
Will Albin Kurti be the next Prime Minister of Kosovo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+484.8%+$321.65
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$168.3
Will Keir Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 15+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$132
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 5–10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$30.6
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$239.6
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 16% and 18% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$33.88
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$185.61
Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum finish in second place in the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+88.7%+$140.53
Will turnout in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election be between 42% and 44%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$57.57
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$149.48
Will Anca Alexandrescu get at least 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$39.8
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.29per pick50cpaid-69.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.24
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$189.07
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$349.56
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$167.21
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+54.6%+$172.26
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+34.2%+$10.2
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300.96
Will 1550 to 1599 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$510.12
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.89
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$26.59
Will November 2025 be the 2nd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$13.15
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+31.9%+$88.81
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$110.08
All 14 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-77.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+110.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-64.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+392.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-01-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$272.16
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$241.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+212.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+96.1%+$57.33
Will Olympiacos advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$253.75
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$184.08
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$308Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$308.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza win on 2026-03-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$208.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UNCW Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougarsbacked UNCW Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$956.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+158.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Heisman Trophy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+158.4%+$78.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+63.9%+$251.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$37.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Safaniya Field by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$455.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-04-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$33.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.01
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.