Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x422bed485f28fa27719c29ffcd9da6def5995caa01cafe83ecaedfa0f03c2507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33e9…85b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,216$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…4b86backed Yes | 13c | 1,469$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f98…272cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,153$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 80c | 583$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 20c | 583$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…a676backed Yes | 18c | 545.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 27c | 465$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7d…5bc1backed No | 73c | 465$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed No | 78c | 463$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 8c | 420.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 79c | 420$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 21c | 420$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 22c | 399$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 22c | 374.93$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.44 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 16c | 287.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked Yes | 9c | 286.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 35c | 280.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 37c | 272$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 63c | 272$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 269.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 9c | 236.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a73…c046backed Yes | 14c | 223$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 33c | 222$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 29c | 198$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 12c | 160.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 155$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes | 36c | 133.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 64c | 131.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 124$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed No | 71c | 118$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 100.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5661…ef17backed Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 28c | 85.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 79.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…5893backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…69ffbacked Yes | 31c | 56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 73c | 47.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…6e9ebacked Yes | 32c | 37.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed Yes | 32c | 35.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 78c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1986…0cd0backed No | 71c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?this page
- Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.