Us Midterms · resolved market
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7594f7d9c70c9d760531c707bb7f40c37614a792fae1b4206488fcbeac490de4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked No | 41c | 965$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 68c | 807$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 14c | 643.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 32c | 611$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 75c | 601.99$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 25c | 598$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca3…9546backed Yes | 28c | 579$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +126%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd137…ceacbacked Yes | 59c | 559$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed Yes | 59c | 499$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 68c | 489.66$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 14c | 478.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 10c | 473.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 38c | 460$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 62c | 460$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed Yes | 75c | 440$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 72c | 431$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 13c | 415.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 28c | 390.55$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9a8abacked No | 8c | 373.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf888…1c04backed Yes | 50c | 352$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd70b…a152backed No | 50c | 352$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed No | 15c | 301.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 12c | 292.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 64c | 280.36$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 78c | 223.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…d264backed No | 9c | 220.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 213.02$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…6f56backed No | 30c | 199.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 80c | 193.45$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 68c | 187.91$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 70c | 180$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…fbdfbacked Yes | 70c | 171.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 22c | 167.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1832…af9ebacked Yes | 75c | 158$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5383…88f0backed No | 72c | 148$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 75c | 144.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 64c | 135.53$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fb…e392backed No | 32c | 135$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…8cebbacked No | 12c | 120.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 16c | 116.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 25c | 113.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 14c | 110.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…9357backed No | 32c | 109$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…5c18backed Yes | 73c | 100.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 76c | 96.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked No | 41c | 93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 33c | 88.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3828…8f92backed Yes | 74c | 79.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 36c | 65.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…0d52backed Yes | 68c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…af4ebacked Yes | 70c | 39.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…a47ebacked Yes | 71c | 39.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…8adfbacked Yes | 70c | 36.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9280…9f91backed No | 32c | 35.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 34.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 68c | 23.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Yes | 76c | 21.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb2…376dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…a7fabacked Yes | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 69c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?this page
- Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.