TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7022…f64e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
400
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT9942.4%42 W · 57 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.23
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$21.02
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$112.54
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+179.6%+$144.83
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$474Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$493.23
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+212.3%+$65.26
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.16
US strikes Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$7.5
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.78
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.34
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$725Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$724.69
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$42.15
Will Marco Rubio visit Israel by March 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+343.7%+$438.1
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+87.1%+$35.85
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+58.1%+$41.38
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$241.56
Hezbollah strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.09
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+764.8%+$102.5
Iran Strike on Israel by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$20.83
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$216.11
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+27%+$25.84
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$74.77
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$467Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$467.32
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+740.8%+$101.88
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT5837.9%22 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.22
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+83.8%+$8.74
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$5.62
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.3
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+172.8%+$159.04
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$283Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$142.27
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.54
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Electionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+302.2%+$201.45
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+59%+$26.34
Will Yoo Seong-min win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.3
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.57
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.39
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$104.6
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$119.88
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+225.2%+$330.31
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.17
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+592%+$74.23
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.8
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.98
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$146.97
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.38
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.2%+$12.03
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$15.32
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.04
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT5549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$9.02
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$26.38
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.92
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.57
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$257.14
Will Golden - KPop Demon Hunters win Best Original Song at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+36.7%+$51.55
Will F1: The Movie win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25%+$8.78
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$39.39
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+39.6%+$12.68
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.8%+$6.15
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$54.21
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.87
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+122.8%+$83.06
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.2
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.78
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 3 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+43.8%+$19.18
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.98
Will "Sinners" win exactly 5 awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.48
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$30.25
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+111.4%+$85.68
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+93.5%+$10.45
Will The Girl Who Cried Pearls win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.84
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.64
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$34.2
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3426.5%9 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.41
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.98
Will Elon Musk be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.63
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.69
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38%+$25.72
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+433.5%+$106.05
Will Richard Branson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+272.2%+$51.59
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.45
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+135.5%+$180.03
Will "The Epstein Files" reach #1 on Apple Podcast by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.48
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.54
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+39.4%+$9.4
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.79
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.48
Will the Department of Homeland Security receive full-year funding by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.43
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.49
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 24-27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$13.17
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$37.85
Will the DHS shutdown last 10 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$18.22
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$286Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+35.5%+$101.36
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$27.83
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+28.7%+$36.59
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16.05
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3040%12 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.6
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+131.5%+$55.38
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.95
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+144.6%+$177.22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+492.7%+$740.14
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+75%+$76.76
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.17
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.76
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$78.58
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$193Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.46
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.89
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$4.8
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+154%+$59.91
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.53
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+65%+$6.7
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.96
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.93
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+98.4%+$24.78
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+285.8%+$113.16
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+40.3%+$67.08
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.91
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.89
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$8.03
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$2.85
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.12
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.01
Will Steve Lanier win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.88
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.38
Will Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.36
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$455Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.9%+$154.29
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+58.8%+$40.29
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.59
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.46
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.86
Will turnout in the first round of the Texas Democratic Senate primary be 2,000,000 voters or greater?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
Dems or GOP larger turnout in Texas Senate Primary?backed GOP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$130.68
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.26
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will John Cornyn win the first round of the Republican Senate primary election in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+457.8%+$116.53
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$17.24
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$23.69
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+45.9%+$244.47
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+44.2%+$196.77
Will Daniel Crenshaw be the Republican Nominee for TX-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+148.9%+$84.96
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST2040%8 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+34.7%+$4.02
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$82.17
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55.59
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$90.85
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$19.75
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+238.1%+$116.35
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$21.06
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$30.53
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+257.7%+$548.31
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$30.52
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+51%+$25.31
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$115.16
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+26.7%+$48.52
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+192.7%+$30.94
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+145.2%+$458.61
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$46.06
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$23.66
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$240.77
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+233.7%+$199.36
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$31.39
All 20 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+33.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$6.98
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$34.42
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$68.96
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.52
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.5%+$21.17
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.46
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.14
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.28
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.04
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+86.8%+$14.46
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $700b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+26.9%+$22.69
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21.34
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $670b on February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38.86
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+81.3%+$193.91
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$26.79
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+34.1%+$4.32
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+146.5%+$51.61
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+239.2%+$81.79
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+520%+$80.01
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.32
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$28.82
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.2
Will 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.82
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+30.7%+$14.62
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$35.09
Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+31.3%+$19.13
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+51.6%+$93.5
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+206.2%+$271.65
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$21.17
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 60 and 70?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$16.75
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 6 be between 70 and 80?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$31.47
All 14 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.62
Katy Perry confirmed pregnant by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.32
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.91
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$532Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$136.44
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+226.3%+$34.68
Will Felicia win Melodifestivalen 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$49.57
Will Fedez & Marco Masini win Sanremo 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.2%+$115.6
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$31.72
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27.26
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47%+$156.1
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+27.5%+$18.13
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$259.08
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+85.4%+$216.07
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$298Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$297.83
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.49
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.07
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+47.1%+$111.66
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$40.07
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+75.3%+$108.18
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75.73
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$24.06
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+84%+$67.67
All 11 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$835Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+58.8%+$490.29
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.06
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+85.1%+$145.88
Will France win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$33.51
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+27.1%+$20.58
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$89.19
Will Norway win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$55.82
Will the United States win the most medal points in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.17
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$80.27
All 9 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+51.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid+61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.