TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,954
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$66,159

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,954 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8b9…b836backed No6c8,986$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,447.167749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes58c5,391$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,100.2422833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes26c3,498$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.3519643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No80c2,980$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5963070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No15c1,440$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.9110739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No27c1,292$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.542123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No17c1,127$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.6627222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes68c1,075$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.532272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No34c690.91$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0614356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No39c680.22$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.8533421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes74c679$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.523026.7%8 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed Yes69c583.98$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.351540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes67c500.13$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.712138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c471.1$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes73c467$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.9521033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No18c453.4$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.9413625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes59c434.42$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.2616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No40c418.74$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.3821155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes56c359.38$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.211850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb66…6df2backed Yes57c278.38$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes73c274.99$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.758831.8%28 W · 60 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0306…a81ebacked No45c274.61$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03b7…db35backed Yes60c267.18$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611060%6 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No46c263.79$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.4524831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No42c254$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.748638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c248.44$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes73c240.63$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes56c238.89$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.816632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7c…d5f6backed Yes31c231.92$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed No6c205.77$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.438042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No6c200$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1883910.3%4 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No27c200$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.346653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No6c197.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No39c181.79$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.4413317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed Yes57c175.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No37c175.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.294957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x848e…d966backed Yes57c174.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No14c170.16$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.146132.8%20 W · 41 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes68c158.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.393132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No44c158.47$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.293857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes60c156.1$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.98741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No15c150$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.110946.8%51 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No27c150$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.51827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-45.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No26c149.45$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.848757.5%50 W · 37 L+9.9wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No44c141.19$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.8712150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32e5…931abacked No27c141$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No34c139.48$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.737324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes63c137.89$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1322948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes69c132$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.819631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes27c130.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No12c121$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.492045%9 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No23c117$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.097843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes73c105$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.653450%17 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes73c104$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.316251.6%32 W · 30 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+54.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed No26c103.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.96221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51df…8f22backed Yes70c97.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.85944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67c3…b261backed Yes78c91.63$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.27875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f75…550abacked No44c90.18$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a8c…8e34backed Yes58c90.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…76e5backed Yes58c88.01$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No71c80$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.59147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.412330.9%38 W · 85 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No61c78.41$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7918026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe75a…49f9backed No45c78.41$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No25c76.81$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.588051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed No49c76.66$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.242339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7022…f64ebacked Yes57c75.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.862339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7b…2d1abacked No37c71.71$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.411533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No44c70.01$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.461752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a9b…7d4ebacked Yes73c68.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes77c67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.598343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No19c65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5517140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No43c63.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.21526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.86845.6%31 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72c…d3ebbacked Yes57c57.83$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No35c57.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.358258.5%48 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfffe…999fbacked Yes73c57$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No26c56.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.551838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed No32c55.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.691145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7593…e677backed Yes71c50$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.51662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.57852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc8…3036backed No27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f8…b9f6backed Yes62c48.66$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No39c48.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.64537.8%17 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1957…5c58backed No26c46$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f44…7470backed Yes54c43.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.152450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x497d…944cbacked No27c40.11$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.282045%9 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+77.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b33…3134backed Yes77c38.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c30…9c2cbacked Yes62c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5d…adc4backed Yes59c34.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa46…4a23backed Yes55c32.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+49%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x007f…233abacked No42c31.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.11070%7 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+62.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No48c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.67648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes52c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1653…384bbacked Yes56c29.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xced2…e967backed Yes77c28.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes74c26.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9566914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa07d…6444backed Yes79c25.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.451050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes74c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.