Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bdcc928ea45c82db3fec2bcac7d7a3fee998686788086195925d0edc291bfd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 2c | 6,769$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,641.51 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…d829backed Yes | 2c | 3,160$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,103.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +5,455.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 9c | 1,073$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8200…df37backed Yes | 12c | 905.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.66 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 44c | 552.29$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 5c | 509.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.48 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 45c | 123.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…67dcbacked No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 37.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?this page
- Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
- Will Rio Phillips be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
- Will Thornton Cooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
- Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.