Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6f46ee9c2ff6977b5a578d8850f95b2f1644dc4874f475022a25bc3a491ca79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 23c | 9,448$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.36 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b9…b836backed Yes | 11c | 8,646$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.26 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 19c | 4,196$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.15 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 9c | 3,804$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.61 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +18.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1223…d424backed No | 77c | 1,439$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,250$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.45 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 17c | 888.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.7 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…ed0fbacked Yes | 20c | 883.33$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 20c | 727.1$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 612.44$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.85 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 26c | 556$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 488.83$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…0360backed Yes | 8c | 372.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 23c | 314.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed Yes | 47c | 300.01$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 29c | 297.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 26c | 296.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 274.95$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.68 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 76c | 266$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 73c | 231.34$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes | 42c | 210$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…49c3backed Yes | 31c | 207.29$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 25c | 203.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…8984backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked Yes | 16c | 192$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Yes | 16c | 192$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 178.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x686d…1a68backed Yes | 10c | 177.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 19c | 151.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 60c | 149.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 43c | 142$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked Yes | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 62c | 126.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 27c | 123.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 115.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 28c | 101.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…be68backed Yes | 40c | 99.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8f22backed Yes | 23c | 98.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…67bfbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 89.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 26c | 89.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc455…ef99backed Yes | 15c | 86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 84.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497d…944cbacked Yes | 14c | 77.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…7819backed Yes | 36c | 70.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 15c | 68.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…182cbacked Yes | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…d9fabacked Yes | 28c | 65.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 24c | 65.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…c594backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…fb9abacked Yes | 31c | 62.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 60c | 61.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8213…48a3backed Yes | 28c | 60.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…7470backed Yes | 28c | 57.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 54.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97b8…b7b5backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc20c…fc33backed Yes | 31c | 50.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…deeebacked Yes | 22c | 46.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 44.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 38.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fe…08c6backed Yes | 39c | 32.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 76c | 31.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 39c | 29.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1653…384bbacked Yes | 37c | 29.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4513…5a38backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418c…4a41backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zachary Shrewsbury be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?this page
- Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
- Will Rachel Anderson be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?Yes won
- Will Rio Phillips be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
- Will Thornton Cooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virginia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.