TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7e35…1a6c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
946
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT26139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 261 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+419.4%+$1,272.9
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.87
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$40.47
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,242Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+44.4%+$1,885.09
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.19
Will PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.32
Will Darren Jones be in the Burnham cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+30.8%+$37.5
Will Rachel Reeves be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.06
Will Lisa Nandy be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10.29
Will there be no next Transport Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+228.9%+$228.95
Will there be no next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+179.4%+$234.11
Will John Healey be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.64
Will Wes Streeting be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.51
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Home Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$231Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.27
Will Ed Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$501Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+238.2%+$1,193.53
Will David Miliband be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$688Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$687.54
Will there be no next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$522.89
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$711.2
Will John Healey be in the Burnham cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$241Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+34.7%+$83.53
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.91
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$314.25
Will Pat McFadden be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.35
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$481.26
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$597.78
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,758Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,758.33
Showing 25 of 261 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT16544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 165 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+139.6%+$212.37
Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.85
Will James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will LaShonda "L.J." Holloway be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.02
Will Michael Kirwan be the FL-04 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+74%+$109
Will Reid Rasner be the WY-AL Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.71
Will Oliver Gilbert be the FL-24 Democratic nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+54.4%+$59.73
Will Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+197.4%+$106.2
Will Eliott Rodriguez be the FL-27 Democratic nominee?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Scott Singer be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$669Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+111.2%+$743.51
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$33.6
Will George Moraitis be the FL-25 Republican nominee?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.92
Will Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick be the Democratic nominee for FL-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+42%+$5.07
Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,066Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+109.2%+$2,256.45
Will Darline Graham Nordone place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.52
Will Russell Fry place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.44
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$438Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+79.1%+$346.83
Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.3
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$352
Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$452Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$452.31
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.24
Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.34
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT+663.4%+$86.87
Showing 25 of 165 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT11851.7%61 W · 57 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 118 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$33
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+140.6%+$407.46
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+33.5%+$147.9
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$82.13
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$279.93
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$215.37
Iran successfully targets shipping by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.32
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+76%+$135.67
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+118%+$255.58
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$23.44
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+218.2%+$638.18
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+107.1%+$208.36
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$669Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$669.01
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.86
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.01
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$561Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.1%+$494.66
1k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in Q1 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+183.6%+$352.2
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.96
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$234.62
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$294.66
Showing 25 of 118 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10537.1%39 W · 66 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 105 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$161.72
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will "The Odyssey" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.36
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$836Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.1%+$937.6
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.76
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+504.9%+$142.36
Avatar 4 greenlit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$619Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+198.6%+$1,228.69
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+117.8%+$62.48
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+36.4%+$197.13
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.93
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.87
Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.61
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$389.53
Will Mr. Nobody Against Putin win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+285.9%+$44.27
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$605Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+40.6%+$245.8
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.34
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.8
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$104
Showing 25 of 105 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT8660.5%52 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$391.44
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$552Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$552.35
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+32.9%+$235.32
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+124.8%+$287.84
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$457Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$131.36
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$21.98
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$107.87
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+57.2%+$193.85
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58%+$179.42
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.76
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+1,296.5%+$246.93
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.41
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.21
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+57%+$51.7
Maduro exiled to Russia by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$12.03
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$66
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$235.48
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$59
Will Russia enter Lyman by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.24
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$292Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$292.09
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$66
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$43
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$20
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT7167.6%48 W · 23 L+9.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 71 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$28.07
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+71.7%+$22.88
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+549.5%+$87.76
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$535Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$409.76
Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+78.1%+$47.04
Swalwell, Mills, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick all out by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$738Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+53%+$391.1
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$106.12
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$460Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+113.3%+$521.74
Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick out as US Rep by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$842Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+46.1%+$387.89
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+227.5%+$532.21
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$607.58
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$235.71
ICE forced to unmask by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$228.36
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,969Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+37%+$728.89
Peter Attia out by February 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$151Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+51.3%+$77.64
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$285.53
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$68.88
Will Stephen Miran be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$259.91
Will None in 2025 occur?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$862Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+110.7%+$954.25
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,665Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+71.3%+$1,187.13
Will Donald Trump visit India in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,033.31
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$149
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$475Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$475.5
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+36.5%+$128.74
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
AIlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5046%23 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 7 Brew Coffee be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$32.72
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.89
Will Kalshi: Trade the World Cup be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.37
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$476Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$331.85
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$445.42
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$589Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+48%+$283.06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+125.7%+$55.7
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$254.18
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+45.6%+$60.96
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$24.65
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$29.33
Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$28
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,385.1%+$294.67
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$38.43
Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+348.1%+$340.38
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$71.78
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+78.8%+$102.78
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+32.7%+$67.01
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$122.67
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$30.4
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$69.17
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$867Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$866.85
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$14.85
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+41%+$69.76
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.25
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.21
Will Bad Bunny have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.6
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$155.13
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,614Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+107.2%+$1,729.32
Will The Weeknd have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12.14
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$930Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+82.9%+$770.68
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$13.49
Will End of Beginning - Djo be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will I Just Might - Bruno Mars be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$19.69
Will "End of Beginning - Djo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$146.93
Will Canada participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$82.3
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+284.6%+$155.29
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$167.87
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT1612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.76
Will SWIM be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.88
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,653Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+27%+$447
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+37%+$52.1
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+53.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$212.06
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+64%+$279.16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$88.24
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$300.44
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$76.99
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+627.5%+$1,362.36
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+33.4%+$62.62
Will Donald Trump not announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve before February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$337.27
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+26.8%+$148
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$400
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+56%+$139.83
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$507Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+39.8%+$201.72
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+114.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$205.93
Will the US embassy in Venezuela reopen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$240.46
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$78.96
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+33.3%+$75.16
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$465Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$465.42
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+351.9%+$1,228.1
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+557.8%+$834.54
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+428.2%+$2,035.72
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+100%+$330.31
Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.54
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+285.9%+$968.34
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$98.51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.16
Will fewer than 2 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.9
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$25
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+80.4%+$133.15
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$211.23
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+37%+$40.5
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$1,195.07
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+151.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.