Music · resolved market
Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3de0aae4a7387f55bf3662dfc924937e15d425bde3bce9649f974b058184df8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 5c | 2,179$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,020$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed Yes | 8c | 751$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 2c | 556.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed Yes | 15c | 502.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 435.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 6c | 355.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 287.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 11c | 212.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…c0fdbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…111bbacked Yes | 8c | 187.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Yes | 8c | 143.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629e…6be4backed Yes | 12c | 133.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 126.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 10c | 111.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…cc45backed Yes | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 15c | 74.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 18c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.