Music · resolved market
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x352a6e088b0c187d78d1948d10b1304eda0e6c24c1fc737696053454d052b0a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89e0…9412backed No | 55c | 6,542$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,943.61 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 60c | 4,054$2,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,437.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 22c | 1,210$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…5147backed Yes | 3c | 1,068$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cf…a3cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,028$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…a332backed Yes | 2c | 1,022$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…e34bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,017$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6756…f5bcbacked No | 8c | 945.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,195.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 861.81$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.53 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…120fbacked Yes | 4c | 710.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…dc83backed Yes | 6c | 650.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 7c | 630.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 617.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 39c | 563.35$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.93 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 7c | 541$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.13 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 40c | 529.13$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 6c | 460$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.56 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 4c | 450$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +525%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 440.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.37 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…2de2backed Yes | 5c | 374.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked No | 15c | 360$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…eb32backed Yes | 3c | 322.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 14c | 316$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +179.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…d9d5backed Yes | 18c | 310.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes | 39c | 303$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 26c | 278.68$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 13c | 250$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…0ffebacked No | 65c | 232.01$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 230.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.98 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 61c | 222$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…ae58backed Yes | 25c | 196.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907a…206ebacked Yes | 7c | 189.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 6c | 174.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.43 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 71c | 148.38$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 10c | 144.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.63 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed Yes | 19c | 142.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35b4…cc0cbacked No | 8c | 140$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,128.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 34c | 131.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 43c | 128.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 10c | 124.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c40…445cbacked No | 42c | 118.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb867…a870backed No | 16c | 113$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae65…c20bbacked Yes | 49c | 102.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 14c | 97.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.87 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 93.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…69a2backed Yes | 44c | 85.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 53c | 81.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…8cf3backed No | 57c | 79.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…56febacked Yes | 58c | 76.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed No | 71c | 67.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 64.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 63.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 18c | 60.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5d…e16fbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…52f7backed Yes | 72c | 55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 58c | 48.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…c262backed Yes | 42c | 48.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c5…b07ebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 47c | 46.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c3…0648backed Yes | 27c | 42.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…3be1backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6078…dbaebacked Yes | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 73c | 37.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 55c | 35.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 37c | 27.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 58c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…09f0backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96dd…ff8ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…d1b4backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 67c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…af25backed Yes | 75c | 13.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.