Music · resolved market
Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7e1ba4d398053214ae9d86d046d6b547efd6cd9e28219d692a7f51590fee575
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac2…6908backed No | 60c | 148.07$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b3…18ebbacked No | 60c | 147.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2e…fd0bbacked No | 60c | 146.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…3ea0backed No | 60c | 145.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…71b9backed No | 60c | 143.8$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…f9e0backed No | 60c | 143.14$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…1cedbacked No | 60c | 142.39$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ce…5893backed No | 60c | 142.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f60…3ab8backed No | 60c | 141.83$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a23…e8a9backed No | 60c | 140.78$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…d733backed No | 60c | 140.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…a4ccbacked No | 60c | 139.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d04…249bbacked No | 60c | 139.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…0754backed No | 60c | 139.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd2…b38bbacked No | 60c | 139.57$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc526…c973backed No | 60c | 137.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…836fbacked No | 60c | 137.83$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe302…ec08backed No | 60c | 137.8$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…c3d8backed No | 60c | 137.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ff…7898backed No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…d716backed No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…2ff7backed No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f58…7becbacked No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d4…3f2abacked No | 60c | 137.51$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…72debacked No | 60c | 137.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…b786backed No | 60c | 137.49$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c8…872bbacked No | 60c | 137.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…6817backed No | 60c | 137.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…6f37backed No | 60c | 137.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…d1f6backed No | 60c | 137.48$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5baa…15e2backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc689…51e3backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…a607backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…d110backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…d589backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…69cbbacked No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd88b…4bc6backed No | 60c | 137.47$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bc…40eabacked No | 60c | 137.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…0142backed No | 60c | 137.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…37d5backed No | 60c | 136.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e6…8431backed No | 60c | 136.53$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…59eebacked No | 60c | 136.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…6690backed No | 60c | 135.68$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…d9c3backed No | 60c | 135.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f3…504fbacked No | 60c | 135.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678a…abbdbacked No | 60c | 135.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…cc3abacked No | 60c | 134.84$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc403…9198backed No | 60c | 134.77$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…3870backed No | 60c | 134.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f96…5cb2backed No | 60c | 133.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…866fbacked No | 60c | 133.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…521ebacked No | 60c | 133.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…0fc3backed No | 60c | 132.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…32b2backed No | 60c | 132.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1469…3a8abacked No | 60c | 131.89$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…7bc6backed No | 60c | 131.7$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6112…efadbacked No | 60c | 129.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…e9fbbacked No | 60c | 127.62$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…7f14backed No | 60c | 127.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah Kahan have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Drake have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Rihanna have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Taylor Swift have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.