Ukraine · resolved market
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a991c78fc614786691a47c0ac0321dd60a0fa4b475c91cbf7c2ec14bb5e6823
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $711,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $688,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $711,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb076…07d3backed Yes | 0c | 268,570$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 66c | 8,143$5,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,777.68 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 20c | 7,842$1,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,550.84 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 24c | 7,032$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.93 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 73c | 6,863$5,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 6,151$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.9 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 5,802$4,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.98 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 33c | 5,559$1,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.26 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 18c | 4,781$868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.04 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 24c | 4,444$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.22 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 30c | 4,232$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.62 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 27c | 3,258$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.33 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…d884backed No | 72c | 2,989$2,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.96 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 75c | 2,974$2,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.69 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…ff05backed No | 76c | 2,946$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 65c | 2,424$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.49 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 18c | 2,325$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.03 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 11c | 2,278$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 34c | 2,247$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 71c | 2,195$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.71 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,838$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.49 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,781$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.3 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…5a0abacked No | 70c | 1,772$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 22c | 1,589$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.55 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed No | 72c | 1,446$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 24c | 1,351$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…8d0dbacked No | 72c | 1,325$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 66c | 1,300$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.06 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,276$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.68 | 108 | 12%13 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 31c | 1,265$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.76 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 66c | 1,217$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.2 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 26c | 1,207$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 34c | 1,206$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.72 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff6…80e1backed Yes | 29c | 1,123$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 1,038$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 68c | 1,036$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.13 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd9…46d5backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 73c | 942.51$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.03 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a1…f485backed No | 75c | 887.28$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 25c | 818.46$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 31c | 804.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.83 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 10c | 771.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 759.45$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.13 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 31c | 740.89$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.43 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…9cd4backed Yes | 28c | 711.18$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 707.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 701.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 29c | 700$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 30c | 692.1$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.81 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 671.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed No | 79c | 668$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 16c | 651.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 131 | 28.2%37 W · 94 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 72c | 647.48$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.07 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…2b8dbacked Yes | 31c | 620$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 2c | 617.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 13.2%9 W · 59 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5428…1c69backed Yes | 32c | 605.45$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 33c | 602.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 583.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 559.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 64c | 532.72$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.85 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d7…dbcabacked No | 71c | 522.71$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 26c | 450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 29c | 449.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…367bbacked No | 73c | 442.16$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 434.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.97 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x806f…418ebacked No | 69c | 433.33$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 42c | 430$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 74c | 413.01$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 35c | 405.38$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 25c | 401.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 401.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 400$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked No | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked Yes | 30c | 400$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.75 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 37c | 399.59$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 26c | 398.22$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 16c | 395.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 27c | 389.9$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x450e…80aebacked Yes | 32c | 376.88$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 27c | 370.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 370.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…7552backed No | 66c | 353.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.51 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 340$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked Yes | 29c | 336.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0404…8353backed Yes | 22c | 330$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 320.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 9c | 313.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7d…7395backed No | 65c | 306.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddce…7194backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…d4d2backed No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed Yes | 29c | 295.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.28 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 21c | 290.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…9cedbacked No | 75c | 270$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.