TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf626…f9f0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 54 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-54%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$991Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$990.67
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+589.7%+$85.5
Paradex FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$80.39
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$198.41
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$94.16
Paradex FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$57.16
Over $20M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$15.17
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.78
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$124.32
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$25.98
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$65.26
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$86.69
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$143.5
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$21
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the February Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$31.67
Will Russia announce a Christmas truce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$49.75
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+37%+$4.05
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+21.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.42
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$312Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$311.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$13.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+1,011.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$272.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$164
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+334.8%+$77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+222.6%+$34.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luther (Kendrick Lamar and SZA) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.