AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe084531a6c7f1bbb51a96d71d22bb655fd110ab29e78a2f06a53c3f2470c8a76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 80c | 2,777$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.4 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 56c | 1,964$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 48c | 1,769$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.45 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 23c | 1,603$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fc…4556backed No | 2c | 1,350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 34c | 1,115$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.21 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 44c | 1,059$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.68 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ed…e893backed No | 2c | 1,029$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 75c | 913.47$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.93 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 45c | 555$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked No | 14c | 552.93$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 24c | 420$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c26…7a7abacked Yes | 47c | 358.42$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 75c | 325.58$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.13 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…19c8backed No | 64c | 282.79$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 275.66$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.61 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 79c | 226.17$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 37c | 220.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 6c | 206.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…a81cbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 20c | 199.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…da30backed No | 74c | 195.35$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 48c | 195.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed Yes | 69c | 192.62$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4be…2424backed Yes | 26c | 81.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf116…246abacked Yes | 51c | 81.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 78.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 74c | 75.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked Yes | 56c | 64.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…5222backed Yes | 52c | 58.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63b…4e0fbacked Yes | 52c | 56.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…0c67backed Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 43.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…fc02backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…ddc7backed Yes | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…03f7backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…9a4abacked Yes | 58c | 30.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…8528backed No | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…b7b7backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…a385backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…4d28backed No | 56c | 23.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…1ed5backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.