AI · resolved market
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2184545c45510c288b8f3b26ec1478792df1480d03ff6c416d2dd1aa4194c39b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 15c | 3,903$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.55 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 60c | 2,564$1,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.56 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 31c | 2,294$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.65 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 42c | 2,012$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 63c | 694.57$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.98 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 64c | 550.05$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.35 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…281abacked Yes | 18c | 540.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…64c1backed Yes | 7c | 456.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…f53bbacked No | 76c | 353.45$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 350.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 50c | 292.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 11c | 275.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6f2bbacked Yes | 38c | 261.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…e93fbacked No | 79c | 254.45$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 75cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 60c | 240.84$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 68c | 220.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 58c | 219.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…a81cbacked Yes | 39c | 207$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…74cabacked Yes | 50c | 201.2$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 195.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…2700backed Yes | 38c | 188.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…9107backed Yes | 58c | 173.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8e…cf2cbacked Yes | 19c | 151.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…c8d7backed Yes | 32c | 143.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…7b0bbacked No | 75c | 136.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…2eb1backed No | 74c | 136.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 11c | 131.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 41c | 122.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4356…547ebacked Yes | 79c | 121.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…8a11backed Yes | 35c | 113.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…3f4bbacked Yes | 26c | 112.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 40c | 88.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4be…2424backed Yes | 37c | 81.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 78.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed No | 74c | 74.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8f…0ae3backed Yes | 42c | 71.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 20c | 71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 46c | 67.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 38c | 59.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e80…515dbacked No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 64c | 54.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…e2d8backed Yes | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…9de9backed Yes | 40c | 49.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…038fbacked Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c38…919dbacked No | 62c | 43.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…b7b7backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 61c | 42.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…d566backed Yes | 49c | 40.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf116…246abacked Yes | 29c | 35.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 39c | 27.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf31f…8857backed Yes | 77c | 26.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…89cabacked Yes | 38c | 26.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6d…a7b2backed Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…da80backed No | 70c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 61c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2b…2bfebacked No | 61c | 18.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a78…8457backed No | 64c | 16.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?this page
- Will CapCut: Photo & Video Editor be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.