TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x03d0…d647

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
560
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: AI, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category AI at 60 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT10352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 103 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$24.99
Will Seattle have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$8
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.15
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.46
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.64
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on March 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.4
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.51
Will there be at least 1575 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.92
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$12.67
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.3
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.78
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$7.47
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$8.64
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.04
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$23.39
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 9°C on March 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.06
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on March 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$19.83
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$10.71
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$6.8
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10.93
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.07
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.41
Showing 25 of 103 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10341.7%43 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 103 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+93.3%+$14.65
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+109.4%+$65.29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.02
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.97
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$8.66
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+121.1%+$88.21
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$14.64
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+55.9%+$15.52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+374.2%+$61.4
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.86
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.32
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.81
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+97.8%+$51.71
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+191.5%+$25.3
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.05
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.74
Will USD fall to 1.4M Iranian rials by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+100%+$22.5
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
Will Iran strike UAE again in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.99
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$16
Showing 25 of 103 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT6152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" score at least 73 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$7.18
Will A Minecraft Movie be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+167.7%+$39.54
Will "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.4
Will "Sinners" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+107.7%+$13.48
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+239.2%+$47.73
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.7%+$4.21
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+30%+$4.62
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+150.8%+$33.14
Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+42.5%+$24.56
Will "The Addams Family" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$31.49
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 60m and 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14.95
Will "Wuthering Heights" Third Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+185.7%+$21.28
Will "Sinners" win Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the 32nd Actor Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$38.82
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$19.48
Will Catherine O'Hara win Best Actress in a Comedy Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+62.9%+$18.3
Will "How to Make a Killing" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 3.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+158.7%+$25.54
Will Violet Bridgerton get engaged in Bridgerton: Season 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$17.4
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 59m and 65m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+40.8%+$11.6
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$9.8
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12.12
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the top global Netflix movie this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+37%+$5.4
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+40.8%+$7.89
Will Brittany Wicker get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+75.4%+$8.6
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT5543.6%24 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$8.08
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+65.1%+$19.7
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$31.37
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$16.51
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.13
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.27
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.28
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.04
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.36
Will Elon Musk post 30-39 tweets from March 10 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.7
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$26.68
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+122.2%+$28.89
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$45.63
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$17.68
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$33.23
Will Andrew Tate post 130-159 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+120%+$34.12
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+40.4%+$14.4
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+117.4%+$25.4
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+55.2%+$12.45
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$13.6
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$54.31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+98.3%+$20.81
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+91%+$19.06
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.65
Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$9.45
Canada recession before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.31
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$7.99
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.58
Will PLC win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.41
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.99
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+134.4%+$26.02
Will Sergio Oliver Rodríguez win the 2026 Cochabamba gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+166.7%+$30.73
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$17.5
Will Luis Antonio Revilla win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.4
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+49.6%+$16.57
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be less than 55%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Will turnout in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections be between 60% and 65%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$20.4
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$24.7
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.53
Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+26.1%+$5.14
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$7.3
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.84
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+114.1%+$43.34
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$14.73
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT4143.9%18 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+143.1%+$37.28
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+95.1%+$34.48
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+110.3%+$36.33
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.48
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.87
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$28.71
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.44
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$28.53
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.04
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.79
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$10.26
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.28
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$8.4
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.39
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$13.57
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.1
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.93
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3969.2%27 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$16.5
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$19.79
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.64
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.14
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$8.01
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+77%+$17.4
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.29
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18.8
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+113.1%+$15.41
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+309.1%+$50.49
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Will Big AI be out as #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+122.8%+$48.49
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.6
Will Trump say "Biden" during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+47.9%+$12.25
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+108.3%+$29.11
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.25 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+42.9%+$9
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+103.3%+$30.48
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$28.48
Grok 4.20 released by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+163.2%+$29.47
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.5%+$31.5
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will President Trump sign 4 pieces of legislation into law in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.37
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.21
Will the DHS shutdown last 48 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+156.3%+$38.83
Will Dick Durbin vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.9
Will Ron Johnson vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$17.2
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.81
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.39
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+202.1%+$22.94
Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+53.8%+$7
Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+92.3%+$9.6
Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$12.6
Will Reid Hoffman be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+96.1%+$17.78
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.21
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$71.53
Will Trump’s approval rating be 42.0–43.9% on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.41
Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.59
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55%+$15
Will RFK end Hepatitis B vaccine recommendation in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.16
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$10.92
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$13.54
All 22 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.75
Will Jason Miyares be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.02
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$7.63
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.79
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$25.2
Will Katie Porter advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
Will Nicholas Finan advance from the CA-17 primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$17.5
Will Nikki Gronli be the Democratic Nominee for SD-AL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$23.65
Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.77
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary by between 0% and 3.00%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary by between 6% and 9.00%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will John Cornyn come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$32.58
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 15% by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+127.3%+$16.8
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.39
All 15 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$15.4
Will "Babydoll - Dominic Fike" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.96
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31.74
Will 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally' - Harry Styles debut week album sales be at least 550k?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.45
Will "Risk It All - Bruno Mars" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$38.5
Will Serena Brancale win Sanremo 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$19
Will Emilija win Supernova 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+49.3%+$6.6
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+94.5%+$16.22
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$77.33
Will Last Christmas - Wham! be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$14.48
Will All I Want For Christmas Is You - Mariah Carey be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+179.6%+$56.34
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11.66
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$31.26
Will Drake be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$24.82
All 14 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-45.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$33.65
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30.64
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.91
US x Venezuela military engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+88.7%+$31.02
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$17.49
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.12
Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+96.1%+$22.44
Will there be zero announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 22 - 28)backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+58.7%+$28.12
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 6, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.09
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$9.6
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.06
Russia strike impacts Kyiv municipality during week of March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.74
Will Russia enter Rizdvianka by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+95.7%+$17.71
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$40.61
All 10 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+45.9%+$12.58
Will un x100to be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+69.5%+$9
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$17.46
Will Callaita be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+112.8%+$13.48
Will LA MUDANZA be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$28.22
Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+123.5%+$19.11
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+67.8%+$23.45
Will Karol G perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$30.68
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+26.6%+$4.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$10.8
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$18.17
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 0% and 2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.77
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.35
S&P 500 all time high by February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+63.9%+$7.8
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 20)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+33.3%+$9.09
Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+147.4%+$58.14
All 8 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick35cpaid+204.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 900k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$48.61
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.