AI · resolved market
Will Trump say "Biden" during tech signing event on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7e333a064fa528271b668c68504b7884f19ce29b3aea43b7c4fa43ae74d9021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 67c | 866.57$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 32c | 626.25$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 333.53$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.68 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…c537backed No | 36c | 294.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.09 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 63cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfc…f43dbacked No | 31c | 277.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf918…3a98backed No | 35c | 209.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 34c | 203.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.11 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…6991backed Yes | 65c | 177.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed No | 37c | 155.26$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 67c | 142.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…e2febacked Yes | 64c | 140$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 33c | 121.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked No | 35c | 115$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed No | 33c | 93.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ad…411abacked No | 40c | 90.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 34c | 87.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Yes | 66c | 79.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…928fbacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…d3a0backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed No | 34c | 70.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90fc…1f88backed No | 34c | 58.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 66c | 54.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 62c | 53.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x032d…3714backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked Yes | 68c | 48.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Yes | 67c | 44.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 67c | 39.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed No | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 69c | 38.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 68c | 37.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 65c | 36.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d82…0bc9backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed Yes | 68c | 28.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…54a2backed Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed Yes | 65c | 21.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Biden" during tech signing event on Wednesday?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial" 5+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cook" or "Jensen" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Manhattan" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Meta" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "Trump RX" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.