AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce37931737ec273fe4d1b99a4f27ca51cc4cc93af19a739f791008119c3dbb19

Rebuilt 36 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: AIevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $2,189

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,189 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in AI
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x1c14…0869backed No	49c	586$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.04	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	47cpaid	+21%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed No	60c	419.4$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.7	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3722…1f0abacked Yes	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.4wins	-0.27per pick	49cpaid	-67%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes	38c	261.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.22	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	39c	200$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	51c	160.92$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.07	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+112.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes	39c	100$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	45cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…35b7backed Yes	40c	65$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x179d…e18bbacked Yes	56c	59.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.59	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…6956backed Yes	48c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…ae61backed Yes	59c	50$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99c4…0c89backed Yes	40c	49.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.21per pick	35cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x524f…4a69backed Yes	50c	24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	63cpaid	+116.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event