TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd31…8004backed Yes50c592$294 inWon+$297.74100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad06…2dfabacked No48c341.93$165 inLost-$165.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes67c340.56$228 inWon+$112.08540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4034…c929backed Yes64c276.92$177 inWon+$99.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No35c206.93$73 inLost-$72.626627.3%18 W · 48 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+112.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6463…e8fdbacked No34c171.58$59 inLost-$58.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No22c100$22 inLost-$2245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99cd…bafbbacked No54c100$54 inLost-$5440%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61e2…7187backed No42c84.85$35 inLost-$35.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No50c77$39 inLost-$38.572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd9b6…cc7bbacked Yes64c69.62$45 inWon+$25.06520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No39c65$26 inLost-$25.542222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked No20c59.44$12 inLost-$11.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed No35c50$17 inLost-$17.53956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+304.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ed…8300backed Yes67c49.99$33 inWon+$16.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+78.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes64c49.99$32 inWon+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f2…3ca1backed No50c47.7$24 inLost-$23.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes47c44.62$21 inWon+$23.555028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed No53c40$21 inLost-$21.21625%4 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90fc…1f88backed No55c36.36$20 inLost-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb37f…fdcfbacked No37c30$11 inLost-$11.16855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…4682backed No35c29$10 inLost-$10.153625%9 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes78c22.33$17 inWon+$4.91850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.