TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing event on Wednesday?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,185

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,185 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8240…d93ebacked No1c2,006$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked No34c1,301$441 inLost-$440.8850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes65c600$390 inWon+$2102138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes67c349.63$234 inWon+$115.634151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes66c261.1$172 inWon+$89.135028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked No33c226.06$74 inLost-$73.832222.7%5 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes77c180.2$140 inWon+$40.555547.3%26 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4996…01adbacked No35c143.43$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked No33c139.9$47 inLost-$46.832152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes65c132.69$86 inWon+$46.449333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No34c100$34 inLost-$33.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1672…03f1backed Yes69c65.07$45 inWon+$20.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes67c51.59$35 inWon+$16.942030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No32c50.95$16 inLost-$16.372935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa285…98e8backed Yes67c44.99$30 inWon+$14.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes61c39.14$24 inWon+$15.364146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x560c…bba8backed Yes67c32.47$22 inWon+$10.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…83e9backed Yes67c22.39$15 inWon+$7.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d16…528abacked Yes65c20.31$13 inWon+$7.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x165e…fb86backed Yes73c20$15 inWon+$5.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ecc…1d30backed Yes64c20$13 inWon+$7.21540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes69c17.42$12 inWon+$5.46783.6%56 W · 11 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xaee2…e71fbacked Yes67c16.74$11 inWon+$5.52955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+36.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes69c15$10 inWon+$4.72532%8 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.