AI · resolved market
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93823e114a47261448419c4732554dd72e2d19efd443cb395d443a53308f0387
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,813 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad06…2dfabacked Yes | 72c | 2,381$1,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 29c | 1,200$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 461 | 38.8%179 W · 282 L | -32.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed No | 15c | 873.09$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 30c | 724.55$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.13 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…a91fbacked No | 10c | 614$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 71c | 593.69$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb7…b4f1backed No | 29c | 554.9$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed No | 8c | 535.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 7c | 518.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829d…1188backed No | 6c | 497.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed No | 6c | 431.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed No | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…083dbacked No | 33c | 396.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 28c | 380.12$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 7c | 362.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ef73backed Yes | 75c | 361.22$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 24c | 330.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 70c | 304.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e17…5aacbacked Yes | 67c | 291.72$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.77 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 30c | 265.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked No | 21c | 261.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc140…ac80backed Yes | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 25c | 199.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 18c | 178.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 69c | 148.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked No | 29c | 144.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…160cbacked Yes | 61c | 118.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 73c | 113.54$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed No | 28c | 109.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2887…dc69backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 69c | 103.55$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 303 | 27.4%83 W · 220 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9c…7133backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 71c | 99.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 39c | 95.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 70c | 94.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 13c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 81.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed Yes | 62c | 81.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…fb86backed Yes | 79c | 80.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +220.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 53c | 73.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed Yes | 69c | 71.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 58c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc1…8b83backed Yes | 72c | 68.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…bafbbacked No | 30c | 66.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90fc…1f88backed No | 31c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…3ca1backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fb…eceabacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5a…1c1bbacked Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed Yes | 77c | 50.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…4264backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…248ebacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…543cbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…ab20backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 31c | 42.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…cba6backed No | 31c | 37.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…53f8backed Yes | 67c | 37.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 62c | 35.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4996…01adbacked No | 32c | 31.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes | 45c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…a678backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2258…1451backed Yes | 71c | 28.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9d…03ccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 73c | 16.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial" 5+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Anthropic" or "Woke" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Auto" or "Automobile" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Big Tech" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Boom" or "Booming" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Build your own" or "Make your own" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" 3+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cook" or "Jensen" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Dell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Genius" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Good Friend of Mine" or "Friend of Mine" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Google" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Hell" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "High IQ" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Hottest" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Manhattan" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Meta" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Stock" or "401(k)" or "Roof" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump say "TrumpRX" or "Trump RX" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "Woke" or "DEI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?No won
- Will Trump say "xAI" during tech signing event on Wednesday?Yes won
- Will Trump's remarks not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.