TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd675…5cde

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT3534.3%12 W · 23 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+105.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.73
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+212.6%+$475.69
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.35
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$344Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$289.88
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.17
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.37
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.02
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$380
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.56
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.4
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$107.67
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+900%+$149.76
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+792.8%+$260.05
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.45
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+372.9%+$237.2
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.36
Will White House post 160-179 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.68
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$401Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$106.47
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.28
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+128.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$265.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+68.8%+$96.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$115.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during tech signing event on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.