Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11ead5e0359636c0daa113616080d23497770fce256e9788aa0b6f8b5e61fb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,897
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,897 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes | 1c | 7,882$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 2,039$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,410$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…42b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,124$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 891.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 30c | 842.87$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 4c | 674.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…9e45backed Yes | 33c | 582.12$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.53 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 24c | 454.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe66…bcbfbacked No | 62c | 435.85$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 22c | 363.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.51 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 17c | 331.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 122 | 32.8%40 W · 82 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 4c | 327.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed Yes | 4c | 319$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 92 | 13%12 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9a…4373backed Yes | 4c | 280.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +92%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e99…72a0backed Yes | 7c | 269.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 145 | 7.6%11 W · 134 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8015…3c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 235.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…f98fbacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 18cpaid | +97%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 35c | 194.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ce…7f27backed No | 61c | 157.54$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes | 14c | 140.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 136$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…d6edbacked Yes | 41c | 115.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1849…137ebacked Yes | 41c | 114.41$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 110.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 109.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 205 | 32.7%67 W · 138 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 39c | 97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a4…83d5backed Yes | 13c | 85.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked Yes | 12c | 85.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 58c | 78.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…e5b1backed Yes | 15c | 77.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 74.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 60c | 73.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…1708backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d2…6d80backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 43c | 44.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6709…385bbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 442 | 27.4%121 W · 321 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 40c | 36.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 57c | 33.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 40c | 33.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…be73backed Yes | 42c | 33.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 61c | 31.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ab…e99cbacked No | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 66c | 20.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.