TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x26d8…be73

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
149
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: La Liga, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 54 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT9946.5%46 W · 53 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$991Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$991.2
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$683Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+397.5%+$2,716.6
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$714Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$714
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000.14
Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.75
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$38
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.25
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$450
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.5
Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+150%+$60
United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked United States · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+100%+$75
Portugal vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Mexico vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$56.1
Brazil vs. Norway: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$95
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$53
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Switzerland vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Will Joško Gvardiol score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.85
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT3327.3%9 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+525%+$210
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+900%+$314.99
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.58
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.4
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.14
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.8
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.57
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$68.88
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.13
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.72
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.74
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$14.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Ugo Humbert vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Francisco Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$70.59
Miami Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Daniil Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffsbacked Nongshim RedForce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$63.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.